The Real Economy & An Expanding Political Map - Top 3 Takeaways – June 13th, 2024
- Inflation calculation. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Here’s a fact. The average American is 3.5% worse off today than the day Joe Biden became President of the United States. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index Report, showing the most recent inflation rate through May – at 3.3% annualized, continued at a pace that’s still well ahead of the Federal Reserve’s target rate which assured that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t begin to cut interest rates. But most importantly to most people right now – what it means is that most people are still worse off than they were close to three and a half years ago – which is really saying something given that we were still in the mist of the pandemic. Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent reporting, the average income of Americans has risen by 16.5% since January of 2021 – which would be great if not for the effects of ‘Bidenflation. With yesterday’s inflation report accounted for we’ve now seen the cost of everyday life rise by almost exactly 20% since the day that Joe Biden was sworn in as president. The Biden Administration has regularly touted their perceived success of Bidenomics (a characterization for the economy they finally seem to have abandoned). The President himself has repeatedly suggested that voters just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is, which is inherently as absurd as it hilarious that Joe Biden thinks the real problem with the economy is that we just don’t understand how good it’s been. The narrative has been so pervasive that his information peddlers in the godless, soulless and slanderous news media, a la ABC News, have recently run stories like this one entitled: Voters don’t like Biden’s economy – buy why? Gee ABC News. I just can’t imagine why? We’d better really try to explore how in the world the average American thinks Bidenomics is a steamy pile of poo. I don’t know, could it be that they’re doing 3.5% worse at the end of every month than they were before the Dementia Man In Chief became president? Just a wild thought on my part I know. Speaking of knowing. I’ve always said that politicians (and their allies in news media) can lie to you about policy and some who want to believe the lies may at first, but you can’t lie to people about what is or isn’t in their wallet. They know. And what they know is that there’s less in it since Joe Biden presided over it. That’s why only 40% of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy and it’s also a key reason why it appears as though there’s an...
- Expanding map. The former and perhaps future President of the United States said following his New York State conviction that “The real verdict is going to come in November”. While we have just under five months to go to see what exactly that verdict will be- the jurors are clearly restless with the incumbent. In this week’s updated addition of President Biden’s Reelection Odds I brought you the news that President Biden’s current approval rating is lower than that of any predecessor that’s gone on win reelection...including Biden’s approval rating currently shown lower than Donald Trump’s in the middle of COVID lockdowns. In yesterday’s Anatomy of a Swing State update Donald Trump is still shown with an advantage in most of the swing states. During my analysis this week there was something else that caught my eye. How President Biden is viewed in each state – not just what have been considered to be swing states. How many states do you think Joe Biden has a positive approval rating in as of today? The answer is only three. And what are those three states? Hawaii, Massachusetts and Vermont. That’s it. 5% more Californians don’t approve of Joe than those who do and 6% more New Yorkers are in a disapproving mood. What this means is that heading into November...
- The state of play is potentially different than many political observers have been accustomed to tracking. For example, Wisconsin is considered a critical swing state, but here are a smattering of what have been considered blue states where President Biden currently has a lower approval rating than the 42% approval rating he has in Wisconsin: Colorado, Connecticut, Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and Washington. In the RealClear Politics average of polls Donald Trump is shown with the slightest of leads in Wisconsin. If Trump is effectively at least even with Biden in Wisconsin, where is he potentially in all of those blue states that aren’t being polled because they’re considered to be too blue to bother to sample? What are the odds that one or potentially more of those states where Biden is performing worse with voters could flip? There’s a very real chance that Donald Trump is currently expanding the map beyond what most have imagined may be in play in if for no other reason than voters in those states overwhelmingly saying no to Joe. The two most recent polls out of Virginia have shown the race tied in a state that Biden won by over 9-points four years ago. Not only might Virginia be in play, right now there could be potentially as many as ten other states that no one has bothered to poll that may be in play.