Q&A of the Day – The Logistics Involved W/Democrats Dumping Biden for Harris
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: How (could the Democrat Party) move to (Kamala Harris) and how would her running mate be chosen? And what happens to their (campaign donations)?
Bottom Line: When I received this question on Friday it was theoretical. When I finished preparing today’s Q&A it was literal following President Biden’s decision to drop out of the Presidential race via a post on X Sunday afternoon. Isn’t that the most 2024 thing possible? The sitting president of the United States, who had clinched the party’s nomination, dropping out of the race with a press release posted to social media.
As I addressed three weeks ago when the calls for Joe to go initially grew loud following the debate due to his having won almost all available pledged delegates for president: Practically, the only way Joe Biden will not be the Democrat’s candidate for president is if he drops out of the race or if he literally isn’t physically viable as a candidate by the convention (as in infirmed or dead). That proved to be the case. Delegates are now released to vote for whomever they want. That’s an important detail in the conversation surrounding this conversation. Though Harris is the current vice president and President Biden’s chosen running mate for this election – the delegates won during the nomination process were only bound to Joe Biden – not Harris. With Joe out those delegates can vote for whomever they want to vote for.
The belief by those who believe Harris will now be the selection is predicated on a few important points. Above all others is the belief that politically Democrats have boxed themselves into this pick. Basically, it’s like this. Harris wants to be president. Identify politics are a core facet of the Democrat Party’s platform, and an already fractured Democrat Party would likely be in utter disarray if it attempted to bypass a Black woman who’s VP, and who wants the job, for anyone who isn’t also Black woman. This makes Michelle Obama (and her team has repeatedly stated she’s not at all interested in becoming president) effectively the only potential unifying pick, that isn’t Harris, within the party right now. And that takes us to...
- How the VP nominee would be picked
In a primary (or caucus) you’re voting for a presidential candidate not their preferred running mate. Historically, in both parties, if there’s not a brokered convention the presumptive nominee announces their choice of running mate and the delegates at the convention ratify that decision out of deference to their nominee’s choice. For that reason, even in a scenario where there’s an open convention, where the Democrats would enter delegate voting without a presumptive nominee, the VP selection would likely still be the pick of their eventual nominee – in this case Harris...however they would be under no obligation to do so. In the grand scheme of the rabbit hole that this topic already is – that prospect is an unlikely outcome, so I’ll leave it at that.
- What happens with Biden’s campaign cash
In certain circles, this is the #1 reason cited for why Harris will likely be the pick. There is currently an estimated $240 million in Biden-affiliated money for the stretch run of this campaign. Of that money, $91 million is specifically dedicated to the Biden-Harris campaign. The Federal Election Campaign Act, first enacted in 1971 and amended multiple times since, is the guiding law on this topic. As it pertains to this situation, the law is clear in one regard. With Biden out of the race all of the campaign resources could be assumed by the Harris campaign. Without getting into the legalese of federal campaign law what’s important is intent. The bottom line is that if donors thought they were donating to the Biden-Harris ticket – Harris has the legal right to run with those resources with Biden no longer in the mix. In literally any other scenario, if money raised for the Biden-Harris campaign were attempted to be transferred there would be legal matters that would be decided by the courts as this law has never been tested this way.
Of that $240 million here’s how it breaks out:
- $65 million to the DNC
- $84 million in various Biden affiliated PACs
- $91 million direct to Biden campaign
Under law each has a different consideration. The $65 million in DNC money earmarked to support their presidential candidate could be used to support a new candidate without legal complications. The $84 million in PAC money is where it first gets hairy. PACs must register with the federal government and express the purpose and intent of their committee’s actions. All Biden affiliated PACs filed for the purpose of electing the Biden-Harris ticket. This means that to remain legally compliant they’d have to reregister with the government to pledge for a new campaign. That opens up a huge can of worms. 1) There’s only a little over three months before the election. How long would that process take to play out and would it be able to be completed in time for the PACs to influence the election as they’ve intended to? 2. Would the PACs be willing to financially back the non-Harris candidate? 3. Would individual donors to the PACs demand their money back? This is obviously a huge deal. And that takes us to the largest pot of money – the Biden campaign’s direct campaign fund.
In short, there’s no legal way for that money to be moved to any other candidate than Harris. Any effort to do so would be challenged in the courts with those funds almost certain to be frozen.
So basically, of the current Biden campaign war chest only 27% of the money currently available could be moved to a non-Harris candidate without significant complications. With so little time before Election Day already and the need for any non-Harris candidate, not named Obama, to be introduced to the American people which would take big bucks to do...that may well be the clincher as to why it is likely to be Harris with Biden out of the race.