Dusty Forecasting, Mega Democrat Donors & Presidential Momentum – Top 3 Takeaways – August 8th, 2024
- Dust is in the air. Actually, at this very moment, due to Hurricane Debby having recently passed by there’s less dust in the air over Florida than we’ve had in a while. By this weekend there will be another huge plumb near you. That’s been the consistent theme of this hurricane season, which to date has mostly been average, at least in terms of the amount of tropical development. This week we’ve received the first bit of news from hurricane forecasters that there may be a bit of a reprieve from what had previously been predicted to be one of the three most active hurricane seasons on record. In Colorado State University’s final hurricane forecast update of the year, they reduced the number of named storms they’re expecting this season by two, from 25 to 23. If CSU’s forecast holds true that would mean there are still 19 more named storms and five major hurricanes to go this season. Air temps and water temps across the Atlantic are consistently near records highs which is obviously not helpful. The one thing that remains helpful this hurricane season is the steady flow of Saharan dust. The reason that Debby didn’t form in the Atlantic was Saharan dust. The reason the disturbance in the Caribean Sea died yesterday is dust. And given that the dust is the one thing we’ve got going for us this hurricane season, it’s good news that there’s much more dust on the way. It will help to keep tropical development at bay. And here’s what’s especially important. There are steady plumbs of dust that are on their way for as far as the eye can see and we’re not that far from entering the peak four weeks of hurricane season. Usually by mid-August Saharan dust abates, opening the floodgates for tropical development. This year we’ve already seen well above average levels of Saharan dust making its way across the Atlantic, which is why this season has effectively been average as opposed to historically active. There’s every indication that it’s going to continue for now. Each week that the dust makes its way from the coast of Africa over our way, is an especially important week from here on out.
- Tapping into the donor base. If there’s one thing Kamala Harris has been able to do since she entered the presidential race its fundraise. While her recently announced record-breaking haul had as much to do with pent-up Democrat donors being presented with an option besides Joe Biden behind door number two, there’s no denying that record breaking sums of cash continue to flow towards her campaign. While the Trump campaign had enjoyed a massive fundraising and campaign cash advantage with Joe Biden in the race, Kamala Harris quickly erased the deficit holding a $377 million advantage to Trump’s $327 million entering August. The latest fundraising haul, following the announcement of Tim Walz as her running mate, was $36 million. Now you may wonder why Walz would suddenly be responsible for another huge haul...and there appear to be two reasons, and two people. The two reasons, Walz was the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, a post he just resigned from, which gave him access to a bevy of Democrat donors. His last act as chair appears to have been to lean hard on them to back him financially for VP...but also because of at least a couple of big dollar donors...like Netflix’s Reid Hoffman and Shark Tank’s Mark Cuban. Two big dollar democrat donors who both quickly and publicly came out in support of Harris’ choice of the Minnesota governor. The combination of Harris and Walz at the top-of-the ticket has quickly turned what had been a big Trump-team advantage, campaign cash, into their advantage. Campaign cash isn’t everything in elections, but in an election that’s quickly turned into a race to define who Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are for the American people – they now have a sizeable advantage and also the DNC, which typically helps with fundraising, in less than two weeks. This is an especially important window of time for the Trump team to navigate if they’re to win on Election Day. And about that...
- One week. It was a number hit for the Barenaked Ladies in the late 90’s and it’s how long it's been since there was a poll that showed Donald Trump with a lead nationally. It’s now been one week. Here are three numbers... 3.1%, 1.7%, 1.7%. Those are the average leads Donald Trump had held nationally over the previous three weeks. What’s that number now? K+0.5%. The momentum for Kamala Harris since she has entered the race has been real. And how long has it been since Donald Trump hasn’t held an advantage for a full week in the presidential race? Nearly one year. Prior to this week, the last week that Donald Trump was trailing in the polls was September 8th of last year. In the stock market after a huge selloff, similar to what we’ve seen recently, there’s often a relief rally. Where a short-term absence of sellers who just dumped a bunch of stock allows for buyers to bid stocks back up. The question is always whether the relief rally is real, with a bottom in the selling having been put in, or whether there’s another leg in the selling to go. The Democrat Party had been on a steady downward trajectory for quite some time. President Biden’s approval rating is only 41%, and only 25% of Americans approve of the direction of the country. People are clearly not happy. Is Kamala’s rise in polls the equivalent of a political relief rally among undecided voters (with Joe Biden out of the race) that will soon plateau and allow Trump to resume his previous pace as the leader in this presidential race, or does the recent rally in support around the current vice president have legs? The next two weeks, by the time we’ve wrapped up the DNC, will be telling as to whether or not Kamala can sustain her momentum heading into November.