Walz is Right, The Election is Underway in Florida & The Partisan ID Lean is Telling – Top 3 Takeaways
- We can’t afford four more years of this. As we’re now only 43 days away from Election Day those are words that prove true for most in this country. According the RealClear Politics average of polls only 28% of Americans currently approve of the direction of the country. The, not being able to afford four more years of this thing, is without a doubt the most common view of the country at large. The country most certainly hasn’t been “built back better” as was promised by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the Democrat’s congressional delegations as they opened up the US border to all comers while passing through record deficit spending plans leading to the highest inflation rate in over 40 years, a worse quality of life for the average American as wages haven’t kept up with the increase in the cost of living, and with exponentially higher crime rates throughout our communities being driven by a greater than 6-fold increase in crimes committed by non-citizens. Other than that, the Biden-Harris administration has been great, hasn’t it? Oh wait, non-terrorists in Afghanistan, including the Americans left behind probably don’t think so. I am guessing the same could be said for the Ukrainian people who’d have probably preferred to not have been invaded by Russia. And it’s most certainly true of Israeli's who were first subjected to the worst attack on Jewish people since the Holocaust and who have been under constant threat and attack by all of the region’s evil players simultaneously ever since. We, as Americans, nor freedom seeking people around the world, can afford four more years of this. So, when this campaign’s original and by far biggest weirdo Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ running mate, uttered those words during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania on Saturday – he nailed it. Walz espoused what was no doubt the most unifying message of the presidential campaign to date. Something every Trump supporter and even most intellectually honest Democrats can agree with. No, he didn’t mean for his message to come out that way. But yes, it did come out that way, and truer words have never been spoken. Btw, his next statement was about as weird and cringy as it gets. In talking about gun control, he said this: And I still got my guns to go shoot pheasants in a couple weeks… 1) I’m rooting for the pheasants. 2) How awful of a candidate does one have to be, how awful of a ticket must one have, and how awful is one’s policies, to find oneself in a speech pandering to people by talking about smoking some pheasants? I’ve previously said that the lowest form of the human condition is looking into a vending machine for answers. I think we have a new contender. The lowest form of the human condition is voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz because Walz is ready to whack some pheasants. It’s fascinating to watch how truly stupid Harris and Walz think their supporters might be. In any event Walz is right. We can’t afford four more years of this and God-willing we’re only 43 days away from putting an end to it.
- The election is officially underway in Florida...and beyond. While early voting is four weeks away in Florida, the first ballots of the election cycle are already on their way for Floridians abroad to be able to vote. The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act applies to U.S. citizens who are active members of the Uniformed Services, the Merchant Marine, and the commissioned corps of the Public Health Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, their eligible family members, and U.S. citizens residing outside the United States. This Act provides the legal basis for these citizens' absentee voting requirements for federal offices. The Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act (MOVE) amended UOCAVA and other statutes by providing greater protections for Service Members, their eligible family members and other overseas citizens. Among other provisions, the MOVE Act requires States to send absentee ballots to UOCAVA voters at least 45 days before federal elections. So, by Saturday those ballots were in the mail for Floridians, and for that matter all eligible Americans abroad. On that note Palm Beach County’s Canvassing Board meeting for the November 5th election will be held Wednesday at 2 pm at the Supervisor of Elections building. It’s an opportunity for the public to share their concerns and to have their voices heard.
- The lay of the land. With Election Season officially underway everywhere there’s another especially important consideration in play. Where voters are leaning politically. The longest running pollster, Gallup, has consistently answered this question monthly. In the just released September update, here’s what Gallup found. 1% more voters currently call themselves Democrats than Republicans, however, when independents are asked how they lean – Republicans come out on top by 5-points. That six-point swing towards the right is huge for a lot of reasons. It’s an indication of how independent and undecided voters appear to be breaking. And here’s something else that’s significant. Gallup’s partisan lean tracker in each of the prior two presidential elections: Election Day 2020: D+3. On Election Day 2016 D+3. We’re talking about a move that’s eight points to the right of where we were in each of the prior two presidential elections. If this is even close to true, and if it holds heading towards Election Day, it’s huge news for Republicans up and down ballots. What it also means is that polling samples are commonly way oversampling Democrats and way under sampling Republicans. More on that dynamic tomorrow.