Q&A of the Day – Will Weed and Abortion on Ballots Impact the Top of the Ticket?
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Today’s Entry: The polls are pulling favorably but is there something the polls aren't capturing? I'm concerned b/c of the different states that have weed and/or abortion measures on ballots which similar measures blocked the red wave in '22. Can the same occur now w/o the polls picking up on it?
Bottom Line: First of all, speaking sheerly on sentiment independent of additional information, I think your concern is smart. This is the most important election of our lives, and my biggest concern with only about a week to go before Election Day is that Republican and right-leaning voters grow complacent amid favorable reports of Donald Trump’s polling numbers and partisan early voting turnout trends. Nothing should be taken for granted in any state and anywhere. Also, as I’m inclined to say, every election has consequences, however those closest to you often have the biggest impact on your daily life. That’s my way of saying the elections down ballot are hugely important independent of what’s happening at the top of the ticket. Speaking specifically of marijuana and abortion, those are of course two of the hugely important amendments that will be decided down ballot in Florida and other states. So, about those issues, will they play up in a way that will circumvent the perception of Republican momentum in this election?
There are six states that have marijuana initiatives on the ballot this cycle:
- Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Nebraska and Oregon
Interestingly you’ll notice that there are five red states and only one blue state with the issue on the ballot. Importantly in the context with which you addressed your question... There’s not much of an electoral vote consideration here. None of these states are expected to be in play so it's all but certain marijuana will not factor into races up ballot save one caveat. Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral college votes. It’s 2nd district which encompasses Omaha, and thus the University of Nebraska, voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 6.5% four years ago. It’s expected to remain blue this cycle, but 6.5% isn’t an insurmountable margin for a candidate to flip from one election to the next. Given the large college-aged population of the district, it’s possible that the issue could impact turnout in it. But that already blue district and it’s one electoral college vote is the closest to a potential impact that marijuana might up ballot in partisan elections. As for the abortion issue...
Abortion is on the ballot in ten states this cycle:
- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, South Dakota
So, if there’s a ballot referendum that plays up and potentially impacts partisan races at the top of the ticket, this would be the one, much like 2022, that would do it. You have two of the most closely watched swing states in this cycle – Arizona and Nevada that have this issue to consider – in addition to the aforementioned Nebraska 2nd district – that again isn’t expected to be competitive but that on an especially good day for Trump and his fellow Republicans could be. Now, with that said, Arizona and Nevada together (17 electoral college votes) aren’t worth as much as Pennsylvania on its own (19) is. To put into perspective how important those 2 evs could be... Of the six most closely watched swing states that Trump lost in 2020... If he were to only flip Georgia and Pennsylvania, he could lose the other four and win the presidency with 270 electoral college votes. Conversely, if he flipped three - Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, he could lose with 268 votes. That’s why Pennsylvania, which doesn’t have marijuana or abortion on the ballot, is considered the most pivotal swing state.
The one other especially pivotal race that could be impacted by abortion related turnout, is the super important senate race in Montana as Republicans are seeking to flip the Democrat held seat in the otherwise bright red state. If Jon Tester were to hold onto that seat, it may well be in part due to turnout on the abortion issue. For now, it remains an expected GOP pickup.
So that’s the lay of the land as it pertains to the view of the possible with abortion and marijuana playing up in this presidential race. It’s far more muted than two years ago in the immediate wake of the overturning of Roe v. Wade. And on that note consider this.
According to the Pew Research Center, in 2022, the economy was the top issue for voters with 79% saying it was very important to their vote, while abortion also checked in as a very important issue for 56% of voters. Abortion, to the point mentioned in today’s note, played up significantly. Currently, according to Pew, the economy is very important to 81% of voters – up two points from the 2022 midterms, while abortion policy is very important to 51% of voters – down five points from two years ago. So does abortion policy play in this cycle – the answer would appear to be yes. But with more people stating the economy as a very important issue and fewer people saying the same about abortion, it’s not positioned to have the same sized effect as it did two years ago.
It’s also worth remembering that while the 2022 midterms were generally a disappointment for Republicans, as there was only a wave that played out in Florida, Republicans still won the national vote by 2.8% over Democrats in route to gaining control of the House of Representatives. Talk of a red wave playing out in eight days in my view is premature, but potentially on the table.