Who will Control Congress? October 29th, 2024
Bottom Line: The primary focus of presidential election cycles is naturally on the presidential race itself. With that said, what happens at the top of the ticket has increasingly had an outsized effect on what has happened down ballot as approximately 90% of voters vote straight party tickets. The evidence of this dynamic is clear when one considers that George W. Bush entered office in 2001 with a Republican controlled Congress. In 2009 Barrack Obama’s large win came a with sizeable advantage for Democrats in Congress. Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 likewise carried Republicans to congressional majorities as did Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. It’s an oversimplification to suggest that the top-of-the-ticket one week from today will determine congressional control as well, though recent political history suggests that’s likely to be the case.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage in the Senate (with 4 independents caucusing with Democrats), while Republicans currently hold a 220 to 212 advantage (with 3 vacancies) in the House. Both bodies of congress are closely divided, making it more likely that the presidential election winner will have coattails to influence congressional control.
In the RealClear Politics Polling average, Republicans have an ever-so-slight 0.8% advantage currently. That compares to a 6.8% advantage for Democrats on Election Day 2020 and a 0.6% advantage on Election Day 2016. This indicates Republicans are running well ahead of four years ago when Democrats assumed control of Congress, while Republicans are running slightly higher than eight years ago when Republicans assumed a Congressional majority in both bodies.
There are five prominent, independent, political prognosticators for Congressional races: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Elections Daily, Inside Elections and Split Ticket (538 is owned by ABC News which is a subsidiary of Disney). The website 270towin.com publishes forecasts which aggregate the information from each of those services. The consensus forecast of the five prognosticators currently shows Republicans with a 206-205 advantage with 24 races that are considered tossups.
The consensus senate forecast shows Republicans gaining ground with a 51-48 advantage – with one race (Ohio), that’s currently considered a tossup. Under that scenario Republicans gain control of the senate regardless of the outcome of the presidential race. Current forecasting has Republicans flipping senate seats in West Virginia and Montana. While consensus forecasts don’t consider senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss ups... If Trump has an especially strong showing in this election those races could be in play. Conversely, if Harris has an especially strong showing, Ted Cruz’s senate seat in Texas could be in play. The map remains much more favorable for Republicans in the lead up to Election Day.
The tossups, both in the House and the Senate are seats likely to break in the direction of the party of the elected president. The current landscape congressionally looks very similar to that of the 2016 presidential election cycle as we’re now only a week away from Election Day.