Beyond The Pump – The Key to Ending ‘Bidenflation Is Here – Top 3 Takeaways, October 22nd, 2025
Takeaway #1: The key to ending ‘Bidenflation
Trivia time...(and it’s an easy one this time) what commodity has the biggest impact on the cost of living? It’s of course oil. From the gas you put into your car to the manufacturing and transportation of virtually every product, there’s no bigger cost consideration that comes into play than the price of a barrel of oil. We’re currently experiencing the lowest price we’ve paid at the pump for gas in over two years, and while that’s nice, there’s more to come.... Yesterday the price of oil, WTI Crude, to be exact touched $57 per barrel. Do you know the last time prior to yesterday that oil was as low as $57 per barrel (aside from about a ten-minute Liberation Day freakout in April)? Just about the last time that Donald Trump was president of the United States. Prior to yesterday that last time a stable market priced oil at $57 per barrel was on January 31st of 2021 – just 11 days removed from President Trump’s final day of his first term. The day that Donald Trump left office a barrel of oil was trading at $51 per barrel, which A) shows just quickly it began to rise under the Biden administration, as the president signed executive orders limited the harvesting and distribution of the resource leading to the price rising by greater than 11% during Biden’s first 11 days – enroute to eventually touching $120 during the peak of ‘Bidenflation...and B) Shows how much progress President Trump has made by restoring America First energy policy. The price of oil on President Trump’s first day back in office was $78 per barrel. What this means is that his policies have led to a 27% price decrease in the single most important commodity. That’s huge! And as you’re starting to see the effects at the pump, the impact will soon begin to be felt at the manufacturing and wholesale level in addition to the immediate impact within the transportation sector. And what does this mean to you? If we hold the price of oil near $57, it’s an annualized savings of about $2,500 for you. That would be the average household impact compared to oil at $78 per barrel. That would also effectively spell the end of ‘Bidenflation. But that’s just one part of the dynamic in play....
Takeaway #2: Low energy prices with a strong economy too
Like all commodity prices, oil is priced based on supply and demand. When there’s a growing economy, demand for oil naturally rises right along with it. For that reason, what we typically see is oil prices trending higher with a stronger growth economy. But that’s not the case with what’s happening here. While many will argue whether or not we’re in a “good” economy, growth is growth and growth equals additional demand and there has been a lot more of it recently. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of this year, Trump's first full quarter as president, and it’s projected to grow, according to the Atlanta Fed, at a 3.9% in the third quarter that’s about to end. Do you know the last time that the economy grew at over 3% with oil sustained at $57 or less? You guessed it, the last quarter Donald Trump was president of the United States previously. Before that it was in 2018 while Trump’s tax policy was taking effect and how about before Trump? You’d have to go all the way back to 2004 – when the value of a dollar was worth 72% more than it is today due to the impact of inflation. Not since the 90’s have we had an economy growing as fast as it is today with inflation adjusted energy prices as low as they are today...and we’re on the front end of this. If prices can be sustained at these levels or lowered it won’t take long for you see and feel meaningful relief beyond the pump and most importantly it could signal the end of ‘Bidenflation...
Takeaway #3: With a caveat
The Tax Foundation’s latest estimate of the average annual household impact of President Trump’s imposed tariffs checks in at $1,300. What this means is that the net effect of the Trump policies on inflation to you, at current levels of tariffs and energy prices would be a net savings of about $1,200 per year going forward over what you were paying last year. This means that even with the Trump tariff policies in place his energy policies have the ability to not only account for the additional consumer costs associated with them, but to provide meaningful overall savings too. And on that note... December 8th is a key day. That’s the date that the Supreme Court has set to hear the Trump tariffs case. Specifically, whether the president has the authority to impose tariffs unilaterally as he has done throughout the first year of his administration. The decision in that case could keep the status quo in place or potentially provide an additional $1,300 in annual savings – or effectively bring inflation and the economy back to where it was when President Trump was previously president...which was a pretty great place. Trump supporters may find themselves conflicted on this one. Do you trust the president’s foreign policy approach enough to believe that paying an extra $1,300 per year is the best thing, or would you rather attempt to go back to something resembling the previous status quo (with the realization that China among others are increasingly hostile trading partners). In any event, if we can hold energy prices near where they are today or lower... ‘Bidenflation will finally be dead.