Q&A of the Day – The Mamdani Effect – How Many Florida Relocations from NYC Would Mamdani Bring?
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Today’s entry: Brian, many have suggested there could be a post-COVID like surge of New Yorkers out of the city should Mamdani win the mayoral race as appears likely. Do you have an indication of how many people would leave NYC for Florida should he win? I understand the logic behind those who suggest there will be another sudden surge, however, wouldn’t most who’d leave for political reasons already have done so (probably why Mamdani will win).
Bottom Line: You raise an interesting point. New York City is a city that as recently as 24 years ago had Rudy Guiliani as mayor. Clearly the base of voters in the city that elected Guiliani to lead the city twice, isn’t the core that’s potentially poised to elect a self-identified socialist as mayor in a couple of weeks. As has been well documented a mass migration to Floridia has been happening for years, accelerated by NYC’s draconian COVID-era policies making it reasonable to wonder how many New Yorkers are really inclined to make a political move at this point. Let’s start with what we know based on what the migration trends have been.
Since 2020, migration from New York to Florida has been 81% higher than the years preceding the pandemic. Florida has been the top state New Yorkers have relocated to this decade, however just over half; 51% have remained within the region. That’s an important dynamic that could soon come into play should Mamdani win. Here’s the next consideration. For those fleeing New York state to Florida, 40% have been from New York City specifically. In total there are approximately 145,000 residents of New York City that have relocated to Florida this decade. 21% of New York City residents who’ve relocated outside of the city since 2020 have relocated to Florida. That provides the backdrop for attempting to infer what might come next should Zohran Mandani win the mayoral race.
Dubbed the “Mamdani Effect”, his primary win earlier this year has already spurred a number of relocations and inquiries that may be acted upon should he win. There was a 33% surge in inquiries by New York City residents into South Florida real estate in the month following his win, and an even bigger surge in surrounding communities. The single biggest increase in inquiries has actually been within New York state. New York suburb Westchester County has seen the sharpest uptick in interest that’s been attributed to Mamdani. This makes a lot of sense. If you weren’t motivated to move out of New York City due to politics previously, but you could potentially be now, there’s a good chance a couple of factors apply... 1) Work considerations 2) Left leaning – high income.
The bottom line is that there just aren’t many right leaning voters in New York City left. New York City’s population is 700,000 fewer people today compared to five years ago, and the people left are overwhelmingly leftists...but not all. In last year’s presidential election President Trump won 786,294 votes. That’s likely the ceiling of the remaining number of New York City residents who’d relocate to a conservative state like Florida due to politics. So how many will should this become a reality?
Based on levels of expressed interest to date, it appears it’s likely we’d see an approximate 50% increase in relocations, above the current trend, leading to an estimated 40,000 additional relocations from New York City to Florida within the first year. In other words, the Mamdani effect appears to be a real phenomenon, but not quite to the level of COVID-related migration trends. One of the big reasons for this is the wildcard in this conversation... Businesses considerations.
One of the reasons New York City relocations to South Florida were as rapid and extreme as they were after the pandemic is due to the relocation of many top Wall Street firms, hence the establishment of what’s become known as Wall Street South. Like any good socialist, Mamdani has made no bones about “having problems with capitalism”. It’s a tough putt to have the epicenter of capitalism in the world, hubbed in a city that’s governed by a politician who doesn’t believe in it.
There are several accounts of Wall Street firms and remaining New York City billionaires threatening relocation. A la this quote from Pershing Square founder and CEO Bill Ackman: If Zohran Mamdani wins, several billionaires told me they'll leave NYC—or at the very least spend more time outside it to avoid city taxes. It only takes a handful of successful people to leave to decimate the city’s tax base. But here’s the kicker, Ackman, said he’s staying even if Mamdani wins. So, that’s the wildcard.
Have the firms that were serious about leaving NYC already done it? Or is there another business exodus in the making. If there is, the potential for COVID-styled mass migration could occur. So clearly it remains to be seen 1) if Mamdani will win 2) What his policies will be 3) What businesses leaders will do and thus how many relocations would then take place regionally as opposed to out of state due to professional considerations. To be continued...