The Midterms Are Coming, Will History Repeat? - Top 3 Takeaways January 7th, 2026
Takeaway #1: History is set to repeat
The midterm election cycle is upon us, and while Florida’s primaries don’t take place until August, the season is already well underway. Yesterday, in Washington at the Republican’s party retreat at the recently renamed Trump-Kennedy Center, where they’re shaping their 2026 legislative agenda (which will be dominated in January by healthcare debates following the end of the COVID-era ACA subsidies and general federal funding in advance of a January 30th deadline which would prompt another partial government shutdown)... President Trump addressed both the current state of the slim GOP majority which has shrunk from four to now only two votes in the House following the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene and yesterday’s untimely death of California Representative Doug LaMalfa. As Trump said... You can't be tough when you have a majority of three, and now, sadly, a little bit less than that. You can read into what Trump meant by that statement what you want but it appears that Trump would like to see a willingness for compromise with some of the hardliners in the GOP – in recognition of the razor thin majority. The president also said this about this year’s midterm election reality... You can win (the presidency) by a lot ... but they say that when you win the presidency, you lose the midterms. He followed that up by saying that if Democrats win the midterms and regain control that they’ll use the majority to do what they did in Trump’s first term and impeach him. Does anyone doubt that he’s right? History is set to repeat. All of the political pundits and political experts will tell you that it’s likely to. Since the advent of the two-party system, the incumbent president’s party has only netted additional congressional seats in 3 of 41 midterm election cycles. So history and pundits will suggest we’re in for a repeat of 2018 when Republicans were voted out and Democrats were granted congressional control...
Takeaway #2: But history doesn’t have to repeat
Elections are up to voters after all. So, about that... Consider that on this date in 2018 President Trump’s RealClear Politics average approval rating was only 40%. That’s also close to where it was when we hit the midterm elections in 2018. And what happened? Republicans were waxed and Democrats spent the remainder of his term impeaching him and trying to screw Trump and this country over... However, the policy impact of what Trump had achieved through his first two years in office was felt in a big way by that third year and his approval rating eventually reflected it rising by 7-points (before pandemic nonsense) but it was too late by then. Now, consider this as we enter this critical midterm election year... President Trump, and his incredible accomplishments from his first 11+ months are still woefully underappreciated by the average person at this point. They’re also far more significant than they were at this point in his first term. On that note I was thinking quite a bit about Monday’s show when I shared President Trump’s receipts from 2025 with you. I’m not going to go through the whole ball of wax again but in case you missed it, or could use a bit of a refresher, or want to pass it on...
- There are approximately 271,000 fewer federal government employees compared to January 20, 2025. The size of the federal bureaucracy, excluding the military, has shrunk by greater than 9% since Trump took office. That’s a decline of nearly 1% in size per month.
- 20% of companies have eliminated DEI programs completely this year, and an additional 10% of companies with DEI programs reduced the spending/influence of those programs this year. Additionally, 432 colleges and universities across 47 states have eliminated DEI programs this year.
- The NCAA changed its official policy stance to end men pretending to be women from competing as women in collegiate athletics.
- Massive leadership changes at major news organizations including CBS News, NPR, NBC amid it’s break from MSNBC’s news organization entirely and even at the BBC after their January 6th fake news editing scandal.
- Of 24 cases involving the Trump administration that made it to the Supreme Court – the administration has received favorable outcomes on 21, or 91% of those cases.
- Total illegal border crossings including gottaways are at the lowest level in recorded history
- A record breaking 2.5+ million deportations took place
- Net of inflation the average American is finally getting ahead once again (by about 1%). Under the Biden administration the average American was about 3% worse off than they were previously.
- U.S. economic growth has been surging and the inflation rate has been falling w/4.3% third quarter growth rate following 3.8% economic growth in the second quarter.
- Total domestic energy production reached record levels in 2025
- 59% of manufacturing companies that do business in the United States increased manufacturing activity which led to an increase in U.S. manufacturing employment of 244,000 jobs, with an additional 174,000 jobs have been protected.
- The average employee who earns tips will save about $2,000 annually in federal taxes.
- The average employee who works overtime during a given year will save about $1,400 in federal income taxes.
- 90% of Social Security recipients will have no federal income tax liability for Social Security, saving approximately $1,500 per recipient, per year.
- Trump negotiated peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Cambodia and Thailand, Israel and Iran, Gazans and Israel, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, Serbia and Kosovo and of course is actively working towards bringing an end the war that’s proven to be the hardest in the Russian – Ukraine war.
- Crime came way down with homicides 17% lower, robberies off 25%, thefts are 25% lower. Overall violent crimes are about 11% lower, and property crimes are 12% lower.
- Trump cut a total of 646 regulations reducing consumer expense by about $600 per household annually.
- Trump secured a total of $9.6 trillion in new U.S. investment. The total foreign investment into the United States over the entire prior ten-year period (2015-2024) was approximately $2.2 trillion. That’s not a mistake. What Trump secured in 11+ months is the equivalent of about 44 years' worth of investments into the United States previously.
The short list is an incredible list! And it’s set us up for unpreceded success in our lives going forward with many of the significant impacts that won’t fully be felt until a year or two down the road – pretty much like Trump’s first term only greater. A lot of this stuff takes time to be seen and felt. So, the question is this. Will we allow this year to be a repeat of 2018? Will we get frustrated, stay home when it’s time to vote because Trump’s name isn’t on the ballot? Will we let Democrats take control and spend two years impeaching Trump and attempting to screw Trump and the country too? We’re set for unprecedented success, yet again, but you have to own it by controlling what you can control. That’s what didn’t happen in 2018. And here’s the improved news on that note. While not great, President Trump’s average approval rating is 3-points higher than it was on this date in 2018 so we’re starting from a better base this time. Related... On the generic ballot Republicans are 9-points better off than they were on this date in 2018. So, despite the many predictions of a Democrat wave this year – the numbers currently tell a different story. Another interesting nugget on that note consider this as of the most recently published data... Democrats lost ground in every single state that tracks partisan registration information in 2025 for the worst year-over-year net performance that the party has had since 1998. A lot of the historic norms that favor the party opposite of the president in midterm elections either aren’t happening or aren’t to the levels we’ve typically seen. It’s encouraging news! Ultimately, it comes down to you and what you’re willing to do this year as to if history is set to repeat. While the political forecasting out there is bleak for Team Trump historically – there's room for optimism if we control what we can control by showing up to vote. It’s very simple really. If those who showed up to vote for Trump in 2024 show up to vote for Republican candidates in support of Trump’s agenda, he wins. If not, history repeats.