Mexican Connections, Reliable Sources & Trump’s Biggest SOTU Issue – February 24th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Mexican Connections
Question for you? Would you ever jump into a car and just start driving with an idea about where it is that you intend to go, but without any real knowledge of where it is that you’re actually going and what you might encounter when you get there? Yeah, hippies in the 60’s did this. But as for you...it’s probably not something you would do. But for some reason this continues to be a common thing for Americans when traveling. On a good day Mexico isn’t a safe and stable country for Americans to go visit. That’s long been the case because Mexico is a narco-terrorist harboring state. It’s well-known that drug cartels are the authorities in many parts of the country, and it’s well-known that historically the corrupt Mexican government has looked the other way (often because officials have been on the take, and/or fearful for their lives and those of their family). On a bad day, as we’ve seen over the past few days, it’s place where Americans are trapped due to cartel takeovers of key infrastructure across the country. This resulted in a “shelter in place” advisory from the U.S. State Department for Americans in Mexico on Sunday and Monday following the Mexican military’s killing of Cartel leader El Mencho amid chaos in the country. But here’s what many of those trapped Americans didn’t know... It already wasn’t particularly safe to Mexico. As I’ve talked about previously (most recently just over two years ago). Most people aren’t aware that there are well over 200 countries around the world that have travel advisories from the state department outstanding. This includes popular travel destinations like Mexico that preceding this past weekend’s festivities contained a Level 2 warning advising to “Exercise increased caution” - including over half of the country listed on “reconsider travel or do not travel” advisories. Most Americans think that if an American travel company will take you there that it’s safe. That’s actually not at all the case. They’ll take you to wherever you’ll pay them to go. And often many of the least safe places, are popular places, because they’re among the lowest cost options to visit. This was the State Department’s warning about Mexico prior to what’s recently broken out: Exercise increased caution in Mexico due to terrorism, crime, and kidnapping. Many violent crimes take place in Mexico. They include homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery. There is a risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity in Mexico. The U.S. government has limited ability to help in many parts of Mexico. U.S. government employees are not allowed to travel to certain high-risk areas. Due to security risks, U.S. citizens should follow the same restrictions as U.S. government employees while traveling. Emergency services are limited or unavailable in remote or rural areas. If you encounter a road checkpoint, you should comply. Fleeing or ignoring instructions can lead to you being hurt or killed... Otherwise...have a great time! Now how many pinned down Americans do you think many have never booked their trip if they knew this information in the first place? Yes, some still would...just as hippies once did. Many likely wouldn’t. Anytime you’re traveling – ignorance isn’t bliss. This is why the State Department always advises Americans to review travel advisories before taking a trip. And it’s also why the State Department now recommends the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program that allows the State Department to send you updates if there are changes in advisories during your trip and also for you to be able to quickly contact the State Department if you’re ever in an emergency situation.
Takeaway #2: Reliable Sources
“He’s a good kid. He wouldn’t even hurt an ant.” That’s a quote from a cousin of Austin Martin, the deceased Mar-a-Lago intruder, to the Associated Press yesterday. Here’s another quote from the cousin: “I wouldn’t believe he would do something like this”. This is yet another example as to why witness testimony is notoriously unreliable. Aside from that, we did learn additional information about the would-be Mar-a-Lago attacker on Monday. Aside from being a 21-year-old man and sketch artist living at home with his relatively well-to-do parents who’d expressed outrage over what he believed to be an Epstein Files government coverup to co-workers at the Pine Needles Lodge & Golf Club in North Carolina...came this. Austin tried to start a union at the golf club he worked at that failed. He’d been complaining about the economy and how he would need two jobs or a roommate to be able to afford to move out on his own. I have two takes on that note. First, I can’t help but hear that sentiment and think about entitlement. Have you ever had a roommate? I have, and the odds are you have. Approximately 70% of adults over the age of 30 have had a roommate at some point in their life. Have you ever worked two or more jobs at a time? I have, in fact I’ve worked as many as three simultaneously and there’s at least a reasonable chance you have too. At any given time over the past thirty years between 5%-9% of adults have been working multiple jobs, with nearly a third of the adult population over 30 have worked multiple jobs to make ends meet or to try to get ahead. What you nor I ever considered was attacking the president’s home. That Austin did means that A) He was deeply disturbed and B) Rather than attempting to work harder, and compromise on living arrangements to achieve what he wanted to achieve, he evidently had an entitlement mentality. While Austin was disturbed, it’s part of a bigger trend that’s been in play ever since the “everybody gets a trophy” mentality got in the way of hard work and actual accomplishment. But what was and is instructive is that while Austin was an extreme example of this...
Takeaway #3: Economic Concerns Persist
President Trump’s greatest strength politically since he first arrived on that scene is that he’s been able to connect to Americans in way that few could. And in his first term he was able to produce economic success that few had prior to the impact of the pandemic. But more recently President Trump’s messaging hasn’t met the average person’s economic reality. Last week he told supporters at a stop in Georgia: “I inherited a mess and we’ve solved it”! He also told Fox Business last week “I think we have the greatest economy actually ever in history”. But what the president thinks, and the average American thinks isn’t currently the same thing. During his first term President Trump’s RCP average approval on the economy was about 60%. Currently that number stands at about 40%. While I’ve recently articulated the belief that we’re likely to see a repeat of what we saw during his first term – where the economy really took off due to his policies in year three – from the lingering effects of ‘Bidenflation to AI jobs fears and slow job growth – President Trump’s messaging in tonight’s State of the Union address presents an opportunity for him to reconnect on this issue or if he misses the moment carries with it increased political risk heading into this year’s midterm elections. According to Gallup the economy is the most important issue for 35% of Americans, or 9-points higher than the next most important issue (government leadership). As I’ve always said, you can’t tell people what is or isn’t in their wallet because they know. President Trump’s first year has included historic border and immigration success, historic peace deals and produced policies through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that likely will begin to lead to a better economy. But most people aren’t feeling that yet. That’s the most important dynamic that’s in play with Trump’s State of the Union today.