What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Weekly Market Update March 2nd, 2026
Iran & the partial government shutdown & inflation are in focus entering this week...
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +1% (-1% last week)
- S&P 500: +>1% (->1% last week)
- Nasdaq: -2% (-1% last week)
How time and the news cycle flies. It was just a week ago we were talking about the impact of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and President Trump’s response to it. Not only does that storyline feel like a distant memory at this point – so too does last week’s State of the Union speech. In last week’s breakout I mentioned that Iran would be in focus over the next week. That most certainly has proven to be the case. But before diving into the economic developments pertaining to the remarkable military effort to eliminate the Iranian regime, let’s get caught up to speed with where we stood at the end of Friday’s trading.
Stocks were broadly lower for the week as a combination of ongoing AI disruption concerns to continue to ripple through the stock market – most notably with software and technology companies. AI impact fears had already been running high when Block founder and CEO Jack Dorsey announce that approximately 40% of the company’s employees, or just over 4,000 were being laid off. And the layoff wasn’t due to struggles or economic challenges but in the words of Dorsey... We're not making this decision because we're in trouble. (It’s) a new way of working. We're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do.
It was only last Tuesday that my analysis on jobs permanently lost to AI was shown to be approximately 79,500. With Dorsey’s use of AI to replace thousands of jobs, the total grew by 5% - just like that. Block’s huge move has made AI disruption in the workplace a front-burner concern – as opposed to a mostly theoretical consideration about what might happen in the future...especially when we next encounter a recession – whenever that might be.
Another non-Iran related note is regarding inflation. Friday’s stock market selloff was stoked by concerns that inflation is running hotter than recently believed – at least at the wholesale level. The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, rose much higher than anticipated. And while wholesale inflation doesn’t necessarily equal consumer inflation, it holds the potential to be a leading indicator of what could happen to consumer prices if companies pass along increases to consumers. Speaking of consumer prices...
On the more positive side mortgage rates, for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, hit 3.5-year lows last week sitting below 6% for the first time since September of 2022. That’s a significant development for the housing market if rates stay lower and continue to moderate. As for Iran...
Obviously, there are unknowns about what comes next in terms of a leadership change in Iran following the elimination of the Ayatollah and many potential successors. In the meantime, oil prices are higher – coming out of the weekend, however only by about $5 per barrel. This somewhat muted move is in large part due to OPEC’s announcement on Sunday, at the behest of President Trump, that they would increase output to offset any potential Iranian supply disrupts.
Meanwhile, crypto currencies have stabilized a bit following the massive bear market selloff to start the year as risk-off investors, including many institutional investors, have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -25% 2026 (-2% last week)
- Ether: -34% in 2026 (flat last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -29% in 2026 (-1% last week)
Meanwhile, gold and silver, despite a significant recent correction from record high prices, have continued to be what they’ve historically been as a store of value. Both were massive winners to start the year:
- Gold: +22% 2026 (+2% last week)
- Silver: +32% in 2026 (+7% last week)
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 29.55
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.20
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 45% drop from here—roughly in line with a week ago as stock prices and fundamentals were little changed. The market is historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 45% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.