Noem’s Undoing, What Will Florida’s Voters Approve? & China’s Next Move - March 6th, 2026
Takeaway #1: What a difference the Pretti death made
3 million deportations of illegal aliens, including 2.2+ million self-deportations saving taxpayers $39 billion. Record low illegal border crossings. Record low border crossing attempts. A double-digit decline in crime (largely driven by combating illegal immigration which accounted for a quarter of all U.S. crime by the end of the Biden administration). 629 miles of Smart Wall border planned, 230 miles of contracts awarded, 78+ miles of new border wall built (including Texas’s state wall completed). 435 miles of largely impassible terrain covered by technology, border wall completion fully funded with an eta of January 2029. That’s independent of the record drug seizes that took place and the key contributions by ICE in uncovering the historic Minnesota-based Somali-fraud case. Kristi Noem’s Department of Homeland Security achieved remarkable success in carrying out President Trump’s promised agenda. But her success in leading DHS was quickly undone when Alex Pretti began harassing ICE officers while possessing a gun. What came next ended Pretti’s life, Noem’s DHS career and the DHS funding deal that was already in place – having passed in the House with the Senate scheduled to pass it through only three days later. Straight out of the Rules for Radicals playbook Democrats successfully leveraged the Pretti death into convincing about half of the country that ICE should be abolished...which btw, is a flatly insane position given that there would be no agency to remove anyone illegally in this country...and given that I don’t believe half the country is insane it goes to show how many people don’t have a clue about just about anything of consequence that they have opinions on... It’s a real testemate to our education system. Noem did make the tactical error of leaving Greg Bovino in charge of Minneapolis’s surged ICE campaign when it was clear with hindsight what a more effective leader like Tom Homan could do. According to reports, she also made another, final, tactical error when she testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week. When questioned about her Homeland Security advertising campaign she said President Trump had approved them. If the reports are true – Trump did not and that lie crossed a line where Trump felt compelled to act. Most notably, Noem’s firing did nothing to appease the Democrats who’ve demanded her ouster. House and Senate Democrats, save a few, still refused to fund Homeland Security in yesterday’s votes and remain content to leave the employees of the TSA, the Coast Guard and the Secret Service unfunded too in their effort to neuter ICE to achieve their open-borders anti-American illegal alien agenda.
Takeaway #2: What Will You Approve?
Based upon the feedback I’ve received from this audience this year...if there was only one issue you’d want to see Florida’s legislature act on...it’d be property taxes. And to be sure, in the limited polling we’ve seen this cycle pertaining to eliminating property taxes – clear majorities of Floridians want to see it too. But what we still don’t see is a strong enough majority to make changes constitutionally. The current version of proposed property tax relief, Elimination of Non-school Property for Homesteads - passed the House in February and was polled this week by the University of North Florida. The question was framed to Floridians taking the poll this way... An amendment to the Florida State Constitution has been proposed that would phase out taxes on homestead property, other than those directed to schools. It would also prohibit local governments from reducing total funding for law enforcement. Do you support or oppose this amendment? By a margin of 56% to 35% survey respondents, in this properly sampled survey, said yes. What this means is that we're still not seeing polling showing that even if the legislature passes property tax relief, it will mean anything. For any proposed constitutional amendment to pass, it needs 60% support in November. Now, what could be encouraging about this poll, if in theory it’s a fairly accurate depiction of how people would vote on the amendment, if they could today, is that it shows a potential path towards a November victory. With 9% of voters undecided, if only 4%, or less than half, of those without an opinion, were to break in favor of it passing that would in theory do the trick. Notably what we see is that property tax elimination has become a highly partisan thing. 76% of Republicans said they’re supportive of property tax elimination. 56% of NPAs are too, but only 27% of Democrats are willing to vote for permanent property tax relief. Notably the Senate hasn’t taken up the House passed plan that doesn’t go as far as Governor DeSantis would like for it too. Most recently DeSantis said this: Voters are going to read it. Are they going to like what they see or not? What I’ve found is, you can’t just have a bureaucrat write that, that there’s an art to it, that you have to know how that language is going to do. The fact that the House has done something is a good sign. I would just say stay tuned. I would not anticipate this happening in the Regular Session. That was never our plan on this. But it’s going to get done. And you guys are going to be able to go to the polls and be able to vote something that’s really, really meaningful. None of the polls we’ve seen to date ultimately mean anything...however they could be providing a clue as to how to position property tax relief in a way that can get to 60% to become voter approved. That could also be some of the strategy in waiting to pass a proposed amendment for property tax relief.
Takeaway #3: Force cannot truly solve problems
Here’s a Thursday quote from a foreign minister of a country: Force cannot truly solve problems; instead, it often creates new ones and leaves serious long-term consequences. The real value of military power lies not on the battlefield but in preventing war. Who was behind that Reagan Esque message of peace through strength? China. And that’s an encouraging sign. Not that the Chicoms can be trusted, however there’s every indication that they fully intend to stay on the sidelines in the Iran war. China told the UAE, which is currently aligned with the U.S., that their “red line” for reconsidering would be if Iranian citizens were targeted in attacks. Which of course hasn't been and won’t be the case with Allied forces in Iran but that is also rich coming from a country that persecutes Christians and Muslims for their beliefs...among other things. In the meantime, while no one in this country wants to be paying more for gas prices especially with affordability already a top concern – it's worth remembering that the much greater toll the Iran war is taking is with our greatest adversary in China. China had been the recipient of 80% of Venezuela's oil, and also 38% of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, in 2025, 49% of China’s total imported energy came from those two territories. What’s currently happening is crippling China’s economy – which was already weak. Early this week China announced its lowest growth rate since the Gulf war in 1991. As President Trump is looking to reset the trajectory of the middle east – the key to truly keeping the peace is inhibiting China’s war machine which is currently happening economically.
Takeaway #3: Iran War Receipts
As for where we stand as we’ve entered day seven of the Iranian war. Here are the receipts for what’s been achieved by the joint U.S. and Israeli mission known as Operation Epic Fury: 2,600 targets struck in Iran, 49 senior leaders killed – and Iran’s ballistic missile inventory having dropped from approximately 3,000 to 2,000 – with 567 having been fired by Iran and the balanced having been taken out on the ground. In total Iran had launched 2,107 total attacks with only 28 that made it through allied defenses. So, what does this mean? It means that all of Iran’s top-level officials are believed to be dead – at last word the former Ayatollah’s son is still the alleged front runner to take over. It means that only about one percent of Iran’s attacks have breached allied defenses. It means that a third of Iran’s total missile inventory is gone. In other words, what this means is that the capacity for Iran to even keep going at this pace, all other factors remaining equal, appears to be no more than about eight more days. What happens at that point remains to be seen, however, what this illustrates is the frenetic pace of the war and that progress has come quickly to this point. As the Left continues talk of a “forever war”, without China or Russia or anyone coming to Iran’s aid, what you’re seeing take place will necessarily play itself out in a matter of days.