What’s Left to Bomb? & The Impact Just an Iranian Bomb or Three Can Make – Top 3 Takeaways – March 12th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Is there anything left to bomb?
Since Monday President Trump has indicated that a quick end to the war in Iran is on its way. At times somewhat directly, other times a bit cryptically, but consistently the direction of the message has been the same. The war won’t continue for much longer. Wednesday brought about similar messaging but with some additional clarifying. In an interview with Axios President Trump said that when it comes to bombing Iran there’s...”Practically nothing left” to hit. Aside from being an expert Trump interpreter, something else I’ve been doing is tracking the words of President Trump and War Secretary Hegseth with actual military actions. As mentioned yesterday...they have been aligned. When Hegseth said it would be the most active day of the Iranian campaign. It was in fact the most active day of the Iranian campaign but a lot. As Trump was saying that there wasn’t much left to target – the amount of U.S. bombing over the past day has reflected that too. For perspective we went from striking 2,000 targets on Tuesday – the most of the war, to only 400 on Wednesday – the fewest of the war. As of Wednesday, Operation Epic Fury had produced: 8,800 targets struck in Iran, a total that was 2,000 more than the day before – meaning only 5% of the targets the join U.S. - Israeli operation have hit took place yesterday. Meanwhile Iran has now produced 2,960 total attempted strikes with only 140, or also only 5% of their attempts coming over the past day. The pace of activity has deescalated considerably. And if President Trump is correct and it’s due to their not being anything else to target – as opposed to say Iranian forces and their weaponry going underground and waiting this round out. There could be an end to the full-scale warfare we’ve seen perhaps as soon as this week. As for what we’ve taken out? 600 “terror infrastructure sites”, 300 missile launchers, 150 air defense systems, 150 ballistic missiles, 50 cruise missiles, 30 fuel facilities, 16 fighter jets, 6 military airports, 3 oil facilities, 2 government buildings, 2 nuclear facilities, 2 command centers, 1 nuclear command center and potentially a partridge in a pear tree (fun fact...did you know that pear trees are native to Iran?). Basically, if it’s above ground and in some cases below, they’ve been blown up. Speaking of blown up...
Takeaway #2: Three cargo ships were blown up off the coast of Iran too.
This is a problem for all of the obvious reasons. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center one ship was struck near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, another vessel was hit about 50 miles off the coast of Dubai, and another hit took place right off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. The net result of all of this is obviously an even greater reluctance by insurance companies to insure tankers and cargo ships now – not just in the Strait of Hormuz but within the region generally. It also illustrates that aside from concerns about Iran having mined the Strait recently – which U.S. forces have been actively demining, there’s the risk of being struck by projectiles through the air. What this suggests is that even if the bulk of the military activity winds down rather quickly – the risk of Iranian proxies and strategically placed IRG assets could still wreck havoc effectively keeping commerce from happening as usual in the region for an extended period of time. For that reason, after two days of declines, oil prices moved higher on Wednesday – despite the International Energy Agency announcing the largest oil reserve release in history – at 400 million barrels. Even if the Trump administration effectively wins the war on land, it’s critical that there’s not a drawn-out guerilla warfare type of environment on the seas. This dynamic, perhaps even more than the current leadership in Iran, may be the biggest near-term key in bringing about a successful conclusion to this conflict. When it comes to striking cargo and merchant ships – it doesn’t take much to have a major impact.
Takeaway #3: So what’s this mean to you?
I’d imagine you’re a concerned and patriotic American, meaning that the end of the Iranian regime as the world’s largest state sponsor of terror and its nuclear aspirations is likely something that you care as part of the end game here. I’m also aware that in the day-to-day you’re likely mostly wondering how much more you’ll have to pay. Yesterday’s CPI report was exactly in-line with expectations at 2.4% inflation year-over-year – equaling the rate from January and the lowest overall inflation rate in four years. What that also meant is that the typical household had 1.4% more to show for their work at the end of the month compared to the year before – also the best in four years. But yesterday’s report didn’t mean anything because we know in real-time inflation due to gas prices is higher than that February reading. Just as oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, wholesale gas prices did too. Though they ended up the day at $2.79 - below the peak of $3.18 from Monday and roughly in line with what gas stations were paying last Friday. What this means is that price increases at the pump at these levels should be leveling off here unless a) gas stations continue to attempt to take advantage of the situation and b) there’s yet another leg higher to pricing. I’ll keep you posted.