Problems for the GOP & Parallel Paths w/Middle East Strategy – Top 3 Takeaways – March 25th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Problems for the GOP
In yesterday’s Top 3 Takeaways I said this in reference to Palm Beach County’s District 87 special House election between Democrat Emily Gregory and Republican Jon Maples. Entering this cycle, the partisan voter registration information for District 87 looked very similar to the state’s - with nearly identical voter registration information in the district in comparison to the state overall. So, what did we see? Three key things... In a district that has 8.4% more registered Republicans than Democrats – that was the first number I was watching in the first partisan race of the year. Which party’s partisans were more motivated to vote? In the end we saw about 9.5% more Republicans turnout to vote than Democrats...meaning Republican turnout outperformed at the polls. That was a healthy early sign for the get out the vote effort Florida’s GOP this midterm election year. But the next number I was watching pertained to the NPA splits. Specifically, most NPAs in the district previously voted with the GOP just as historically been the case across the state. So, what did we see? While we obviously don’t know how all voters voted at the polls, what we can infer based on Emily Gregory’s victory which tracked is that NPAs solidly broke the Democrat’s way. Meaning it was a great day for Gregory and also a sign that after flipping the Mayoral elections in Miami and Boca Raton most recently, there appears to be a problem Republicans have with NPAs at this stage of the election cycle. And if that’s true in PBC, and perhaps South Florida generally, it’s not a stretch to think it’s a potentially bigger thing nationally. This is a DEM win in a district that was won by Mike Caruso by 19 points in the two prior elections.
Takeaway #2: Parallel Paths
Two seemingly competing concepts with the war in Iran can be mutually true and both could be pointed towards peace. You might call what’s been disseminated in the news media around the world over the past day “the fog of the misinformation war”. On Monday President Trump said constructive talks were being had with Iran and articulated the potential for peace as soon as this week. Also, on Monday Iran state media reported there were no talks and that essentially there would be no peace. As I explained yesterday this was a completely understandable thing because President Trump was eager to calm financial markets – especially the oil market – to minimize oil supply chain fears and economic harm to consumers and investors as futures markets were pointing to a sharp increase in oil prices and a sharp selloff in stocks. It immediately worked, oil significantly declined, with stock prices sharply on the rise. That’s why Iran, who previously said oil prices would go to $200 per barrel with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, would have countered Trump’s claims as quickly as they came. Iran’s only leverage is to try to drive up the price of energy to attempt to obtain better terms with any potential deal that’s struck between the countries. So, enter what happened on Tuesday where President Trump was not only talking about progress in negotiating potential peace, declaring Tehran had agreed to no nuclear weapons ever, and that he was working on a 15-point deal with Iran for peace. But also, on Tuesday the news came in that approximately 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne were deploying to the middle east. Many GSS news outlets reported the behavior as contradictory to what the president has said with the increased risk of an escalation with a ground invasion. But it’s not contradictory for two reasons. The first and most immediate reason is what President Trump is attempting to achieve – the best deal for peace and a governing path forward away from being a state sponsor of terror. And how does Trump negotiate? Once again, all one needs to do is read the book (which still to this day 39 years later so few who report news do).
Takeaway #3: It’s with maximum leverage
And what, in this negotiation with Iran, would amount to maximum leverage? Here’s a hint. It wouldn’t be letting them permanently hide out in tunnels and bunkers waiting for the day to fire a nuke off at you. The threat of a ground invasion to eliminate them wherever they happen to be would be the maximum leverage strategy. So yes, it’s possible that deploying the 82nd Airborne into Iran could be a process towards peace. But here’s the next thing. It’s about the IRGC. There are already signs that with effectively all of Iran’s previous leadership having been introduced to what really lies beyond, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has been seizing control. One of the possibilities is that even if there is peace reached with whatever terroristic clerics are left in Tehran, the IRGC doesn’t go along with their thinking. To that end, we have to be prepared for all eventualities which also includes having to decimate the military in addition to their capabilities. There’s no telling what that might entail. The president is working parallel paths with maximum leverage as per the Art of the Deal. And one more thing. Many alleged experts in news media were quick to scoff at President Trump’s announced, but not detailed, 15-point plan. I’ll remined these same fools that it was only last year that President Trump announced a 20ish-point plan to broker peace between Israel and Hamas. They scoffed at that one too – which not only worked but has held. If a detailed peace process can be brokered between Israel and Hamas, it can be brokered between the U.S. and Iran. And btw, the template for Hamas – which includes middle eastern countries all playing a role in keeping the peace – responsibilities within a governing body – is probably a roadmap for Iran going forward too. From Saudi Arabia to the UAE, they all have sided with the U.S. with the Saudi’s saying most recently they were willing to intervene militarily if needed. Whether it will happen remains to be seen, but a different version of what’s being worked on was recently successfully done.