Where We Stand & What Comes Next w/Iran & Meanwhile at Home... – Top 3 Takeaways – April 9th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Where we stand
Yesterday in the wake of the Iranian ceasefire deal that mostly held throughout the first day – which tends to be the most difficult and important day to get through... I waded through the steady stream of U.S. based GSS News continuing to literally report Iranian state news. Headline from CNN... Iran halts Strait of Hormuz oil traffic after Israel's Lebanon attacks. Here’s one from the Associated Press... Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. By midday yesterday those headlines made their way throughout our country and around the world. And who was the source? Iranian state media. As I’ve routinely pointed out recently, GSS news in this country routinely reports whatever it is that Iranian state media reports within their country. Effectively what’s happened and what’s been on display is that in this TDS driven world of GSS News we live in most traditional news organizations have put the Iranian government’s credibility on the same footing as the Trump administration. That is no exaggeration. The regime that’s been the largest sponsor of terrorism around the world for over 40 years has effectively been given equal footing with the Trump administration. In other words, there’s no real distance between the messaging that readers/viewers of CNN or the AP receive than the propaganda Iranians receive. Now what was true was that there was a smattering of small-scale attempted attacks that were directed at our middle-eastern allies seemingly to attempt to have them put pressure on the U.S. to rein in Israel. That's due to what did take place yesterday as Israel turned its attention fully towards targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned, and President Trump confirmed, Lebanon wasn’t included in the ceasefire deal, yet Israel’s attacks against one of Iran’s terror proxy forces was met with resistance by the Iranian regime. As for what actually took place yesterday, there were 7 cargo ships that made it through the Strait of Hormuz, or only about 7% of typical traffic on day 1 of the ceasefire. Why’s that the case? Has Iran “closed” the Strait of Hormuz in violation of the ceasefire again?
Takeaway #2: What comes next
In reality, amid a bit of confusion (much of it intentional) by Iran’s state media being parroted around the world – it's not the case that the strait is necessarily still closed to traffic but rather that it’s unclear exactly how safe it may be for tanking companies to proceed. For example, shipping company Vespucci Maritime, which has significant regional interests, said yesterday: Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available. The International Chamber of Shipping added: We need to make sure that we have clear confirmation that the safety of navigation for the ships and the seafarers are being agreed. So, the bottom line is that while the strait may once again be open for business, shipping companies are concerned about testing the waters too quickly if there’s still the possibility the IRGC will send their ships to the bottom of the sea. This is part of the reason that oil “only” declined by about 15% to close at about $96 per barrel when the price had been trading at $65 before the Iranian war began. There remains a great deal of skepticism within the shipping industry about the ability to traverse the strait safely. If this is truly to resolve itself sooner than later, the U.S. will likely need to take an active role in seeing to it that this happens...and perhaps our feckless European allies who rely on that strait more than we do too. In a joint statement released yesterday they said... Our Governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. I wouldn’t hold my breath that EU contributions will amount to anything – therefore if we’re going to see concerns thawing quickly – it's likely going to need to come with support from the U.S. military...and perhaps Israel ceasing attacks into Lebanese territory.
Takeaway #3: Here at home...
You’re familiar with the saying “win the battle, but lose the war”. There are countless historical examples of this from the Battle of Bunker Hill by the British in the Revolutionary War to Al Queda on 9/11. President Trump is currently at risk of seeing the inverse occur...in that he may win the war with Iran, Venezuela, perhaps Cuba too but lose the political battle here at home this cycle. Following the flipping of Florida’s House District 87 seat and Lt. Governor Jay Collins' senate seat in recent special elections my top takeaway that day was that there were problems for the GOP. That wasn’t just due to both seats flipping from Republicans to Democrats...but how it was that they flipped from Republicans than Democrats. In both races registered Republicans significantly outvoted registered Democrats. Where the races appear to have been lost was with independents (or in Florida NPA’s). In both races those in the political middle who showed up to vote heavily broke to the Left. One of a few things likely occurred. The NPAs motivated to vote were those most likely to vote for Democrats, or NPAs who’d previously broken for Republicans made a hard left. And probably a combination of the two to some degree. That was particularly bad news for the GOP. So was what happened in two notable races in other parts of the country. In Wisconsin on Tuesday liberals expanded their majority on Wisconsin's Supreme Court by effectively flipping the technically non-partisan seat by 20%. The seat had previously been one by a conservative judge by 5%. That’s a devastating turn of events on a statewide scale. And then in the Georgia congressional race to replace Margorie Taylor Greene...Yes, the Republican Cory Fuller won the race by 14-points...however that too was a major swing from the 29-point victory previously by Greene. Every election across the country continues to paint a picture that this year’s midterm election picture is increasingly bleak for the GOP. It’s imperative that DJT begins to deliver on the issues that matter most to people here at home. He can win the war(s) but lose lots of battles this year in the process.