Negotiating w/Iranian Terrorists – Top 3 Takeaways – April 20th, 2026
Takeaway #1: What now?
My second takeaway last Monday was “now what”? It was my first reaction to news that the 21-hour peace talks between the U.S. and Iran effectively went nowhere over the previous weekend. Similarly, but under somewhat different circumstances my first reaction to where we were and are entering this week is what now? And the “what now” reaction is for two reasons. One that’s likely obvious and the other that’s much less so. Friday, for most of the day, was a day of excitement – optimism, and importantly as it pertains to affordability and the overall economy, much lower oil prices. The Friday morning news delivered by President Trump was this: IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU! In a series of subsequent posts, he also said this: Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP (a post that didn’t exactly age well). This of course led to a massive rally on Wall Street with record high closes achieved by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq – which also closed with its 13th consecutive day of gains – the longest winning streak in 34 years! Much of the rally was fueled by cheaper fuel as the price of oil closed at $83 per barrel on Friday...the lowest price since the first week of the war. But it didn’t take long for all that optimism and enthusiasm to abate...that’s because by Saturday the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was using it’s “attack boat” fleet to begin firing on ships crossing the strait. This included French and British ships, but also notably, Indian flagged ships which is significant because of their particularly close energy arrangement. India, for example, is one of only a few countries who’d been allowed to bring energy through the Strait while it had been closed. The Iranian government announced that the strait was once again closed which changed the state-of-play quickly. Gone was the enthusiasm. Gone was the optimism. Once again uncertainty and a looming Tuesday deadline for a deal under the 10-day ceasefire became the epicenter of conversation. By Sunday morning President Trump posted this: Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP. So yeah, we’re back to where we started with another looming deadline ahead. Importantly peace talks between the U.S. and Iran are still scheduled in Islamabad with the President Trump’s favorite Pakistani mediator. So, there’s that. Today will be a day to closely watch what will be in the financial markets. There’s the risk of a massive reversal of last week’s trading activity. That’s an update as to where we are today, but it’s also the obvious news and obvious take. Here’s the next level conversation that’s not necessarily so obvious.
Takeaway #2: Fool me twice?
With the sequence of events that’s now taken place, there’s a very real question about whether there’s any potential negotiation, and any potential peace deal or even strait deal that can take place with the current players in place. Going back to a few weeks ago I very carefully outlined what was really taking place with the Trump administration's vetting of Iranian officials who claimed to now be in power. During a previous ten-day negotiation period the Trump administration came up with a plan for the Iranian Mullahs who claimed to have authority to be able to prove it. They were to allow eight ships through immediately and then two ships per day during each of the next ten days. If those ships were to make it through – the Trump administration knew that those with whom they were negotiating with had the juice to be able to implement what the two sides would eventually agree to. But that seemingly began to change with announcement of the ceasefire deal between the US, Israel and Iran. The U.S. and Israel stated that Hezbollah in Lebanon wasn’t part of the ceasefire deal. Iran said that it was and was in violation of the agreement. I raised the question as to whether this was a genuine misunderstanding or perhaps something more? The ceasefire deal came together verbally as opposed to a ratified document with specifics, so the potential at least was there for plausible deniability amid fast developing talks within two hours of a stated deadline. When the strait was theoretically reopened on Friday following the ceasefire agreement of Israel and Hezbollah – it seemed to suggest that indeed it had been miscommunication or a misunderstanding. But was it really? One of president Trump’s posts in the immediate wake of the news of the strait being opened was this: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP. So clearly President Trump believed that the ceasefire deal to open the strait allowed for the blockade to continue until there was a permanent agreement in place.
Takeaway #3: Does this sound familiar?
What’s particularly noteworthy is that over half of a day went by from the time Trump posted that note to Truth – until Iran once again stated that they were closing the Strait of Hormuz (until the blockade was ended). So, here’s the quandary. This is now the second time in short succession that President Trump’s accounting of an agreement isn’t what Iran has stated. How likely is this to be two consecutive misunderstandings? If we then assume that misunderstandings aren’t taking place, then one of two things are in play. 1) That there really is a power vacuum in place in Iran and that what the mullahs have agreed to isn’t what the Iranian Revolutionary Guard isn’t will to do. 2) That the mullahs do in fact have the juice to deliver on agreed to policy but that they can’t be trusted to carry out what they’ve agreed to. Either way this would be a highly problematic thing that then in theory could only be solved by an escalation of the conflict likely leading to boots on the ground and regime change not just in name (as in the officials in charge). What appeared to be clearing up on Friday is perhaps as opaque as it’s been entering Monday. But then again when you think about it...it’s not so surprising is it? These after all are Iranian terrorists. Stay tuned for news...the next two days are particularly important days.