What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update April 20th, 2026
Iran & earnings are in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +4% (+4% last week)
- S&P 500: +4% (+5% last week)
- Nasdaq: +5% (+7% last week)
Records, records, everywhere...was the story of last week as an explosive rally took hold on Wall Street. Not only did stocks recover all their losses from the onset of the Iran war, but also the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week having set a series of record high closes with the biggest rally of them all to end the week. Additionally, the Nasdaq ended the week with a greater than two-and-a-half-week winning streak... The Nasdaq, buoyed by the AI revolution, has closed higher for 13-consective days entering this week – the longest such streak since 1992 – in the early days of the dot com boom. But that was then, and this is now.
Friday’s massive rally, to close out the remarkable week of trading, was of course driven by the news that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. From the onset of the original 10-day ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran – Iranian officials had stated the Israeli attacks of Hezbollah were in violation of the ceasefire agreement. This led to President Trump sending a message of thanks to Iran while also stating that Iran had agreed to never close the strait again as had largely been the case since the onset of the war. However, optimism and the openness of the strait was short-lived.
Less than a day after announcing that the Strait was open, the Iranian regime effectively closed the strait once again – firing on Indian, French and British flagged ships seeking to pass through the Strait in the process. Iran blamed the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and ships following the opening of the Strait. President Trump’s message on Sunday to Iran was that U.S. representatives would be in Islamabad to meet with Iranian officials on a peace deal today – but that if a deal isn’t reached by the expiration of the ceasefire on Tuesday – everything would be on the table again.
Independent of Iranian news, earnings were in focus over the past week. As of Friday 10%, of companies had reported for the first quarter of the year. The results were particularly strong with earnings having grown 13.2% year-over-year. This led to increased optimism regarding the U.S. economy preceding the Iranian news that lifted the market to new highs on Friday.
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were winners alongside stocks last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -15% 2026 (+7% last week)
- Ether: -22% in 2026 (+8% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -17% in 2026 (+9% last week)
Meanwhile precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – posted solid gains with gold and silver both trading higher.
- Gold: +13% 2026 (+2% last week)
- Silver: +16% in 2026 (+6% last week)
As for the big picture stuff entering this week...
Almost all eyes will be on what does or doesn’t happen with Iran. With a massive rally built on optimism that Iran related issues were mostly behind us – the potential for a significant reversal is in place in the financial markets today and tomorrow. Oil prices will help tell the story of where sentiment is during these volatile moments. Oil prices (WTI) closed last week at $83 per barrel - the lowest price since the first week of the war.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.62
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here, 2% more risk compared with a week ago as stock prices rose faster than fundamentals. The market is 1% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.