Deal or No Deal with Iran – We’re in the Same Place in the End – Top 3 Takeaways – April 22nd, 2026
Takeaway #1: Deal or No Deal?
I’d actually never watched an episode of Deal or No Deal. That was true of the original, that was true of the U.S. reboot. But it came to mind on Tuesday as we were waiting to see if there would be a deal or no deal with Iran and in the interest of proper show prep for the purpose of effectively deploying this analogy, I looked up what I’d missed. The clips that come up first are from the first ever U.S.-based grand prize win. In 2008, after 178 episodes, a very pregnant Jessica Robinson went the distance turning down deals offered by the banker every step of the way to her way to the $1 million grand prize. Somewhat remarkably the last deal she turned down was an offer for $561k – however it did net her the much bigger payday. As an aside, her story turned out to be a great one. She used the money to buy a home, stay home with her kids for a few years, and donated to her church. These days she has a wonderful family – it's a happily ever after kind of story. That sequence of events also seemed appropriate for the Iranian situation and maybe, just maybe we can have a happy ending to this conflict? It feels like we’d been through about 178 episodes of deal or no deal with Iran approaching yesterday’s deadline and in the end the truth is that any deal with Iran is a questionable deal at best. Deals have been cut with Iran before, but all were dubious from the start and with good reason. The people we’re negotiating with are the world’s most prolific terrorists. If you can’t trust the world’s leading terror sponsor, who can you trust, right? In many respects the expectation for this to have gone differently was rather silly. While it was Margaret Thatcher who effectively coined the phrase “We do not negotiate with terrorists” in 1985, it wasn’t all that long ago, a la after 9/11 that the U.S. effectively had assumed that position too. That takes us to the...
Takeaway #2: State of Play and what to watch for today
...and in the coming days as well for that matter. It’s like this. In 1979, with the successful Iranian Revolution that led to the terroristic Islamist control of the country, the IRGC, or Islamic Revolutionary Guard, that you hear about so much these days; was formally established by Ayatollah Khomeini. The IRGC, at the time of their founding, were elite fighters central to the revolution’s success and loyal to the new ayatollah. They stood in contrast to the existing Iranian military which had been fighting to preserve the previously standing monarchy. Overtime the traditional Iranian Army and the IRGC operated independently, however as the ayatollah's control grew the authority did too. The IRGC became known as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard due to their loyalty to the ayatollah’s Islamic regime. While much isn’t known about what is or isn’t true in terms of the current power structure in Iran after Israel’s elimination of the ayatollah – and 50+ top mullahs is that the IRGC has once again affirmed its loyalty to the new ayatollah who was hit in the blast that killed his dad and hasn’t been seen or heard from publicly since. What this means is two things. 1) We don’t know who is calling the shots and 2) We don’t know who actually has the authority to (military backing)...and remember that’s independent of the fact that we’re negotiating with terrorists (because if you can’t trust them who can you trust). And so the point is this...
Takeaway #3: This isn't the end
Whether there was a deal or no deal always had the potential to be immaterial. After all...if the premise of anything is false...so, in other words, there were always questions about what would come next. Just look at what happened when Iran cut a deal with Obama. The glass half full effect is this...at least in the short term there are mutually aligned interests. As my analysis last week demonstrated with the Strait of Hormuz closed and our blockade in place 23% of Iran’s GDP has disappeared which effectively has the country in the equivalent of what the United States went through during the Great Depression. Also, and of extreme importance for multiple reasons, they still don’t have nuclear bomb capabilities. The two countries that are hurt most if the status quo were to continue and/or if resumption of bombing resumes – are Iran and China. Two of our top three adversaries. There are worse things in the world. Also, The IRGC, which seemingly has assumed authority, isn’t the preferred choice of Chinese authorities because they’re far less likely to be controlled, and far less likely to continue to honor previous agreements like the well-below market oil Iran has been selling to China since 2021. There’s a potential scenario where the axis alliance led by China and Russia continues to splinter leading to what might even include Chinese assistance in running interference. In any event this isn’t the end, it’s anyone’s guess what will be, and the truth of the matter is even if there had been a “peace deal” achieved by the ceasefire deadline – that also wouldn’t have been the end because it would have been negotiated with terrorists.