What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update April 27th, 2026
Iran, earnings and the Federal Reserve are in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with without making emotional money mistakes. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +2% (->1% last week)
- S&P 500: +4.5% (+1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +7% (+2% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were flat to higher last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -12% 2026 (+2% last week)
- Ether: -22% in 2026 (flat last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -17% in 2026 (+2% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were losers over the past week though they remain the best performers year-to-date.
- Gold: +10% 2026 (-2% last week)
- Silver: +8% in 2026 (-3% last week)
No resolution in Iran? No problem for stocks and cryptocurrencies last week. After the massive rally to end the prior week amid news that the Strait of Hormuz was open and seemingly that a peace deal was soon to follow...it's unlikely many would have suspected that none of the Iranian news would stick, status quo conditions with the Strait of Hormuz closed would remain and yet stocks would continue to rally and reach a series of record highs anyway...but that’s exactly what’s taken place.
The bottom line is that a combination of outstanding earnings and AI enthusiasm has proven to be stronger than geopolitical concerns and economic concerns about the higher cost of fuel and inflation generally. The current inertia around the AI-boom has a similar feeling and trading pattern to the mid-90's stock market boom surrounding the dot com era. As for earnings...
As of Friday, 28% of companies reported for the first quarter of the year. The results have been particularly strong with earnings having grown 15.1% year-over-year allowing investors to look past the current economic headwinds. One other dynamic in play is the nomination process of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Warsh successfully navigated a series of challenging questions during the first Senate confirmation hearing last week.
Still, Senator Thom Tillis, a key vote for the Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, said he’d block the nomination process until the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation of Powell related to his congressional testimony involving cost overruns on a multi-billion renovation project. On Friday, the DOJ did drop the criminal investigation unlocking Tillis’ support and setting up a vote to advance Warsh’s nomination out of committee Wednesday morning.
Now for valuation calculations – starting with cryptos...Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.78
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here, flat with a week ago, as stock prices and fundamentals rose similarly. The market is 1% off its risk adjusted highs, though it remains historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.