One Week, Four Score? & 25 Years Ago – Top 3 Takeaways – May 8th, 2026
Takeaway #1: One week?
On Wednesday reports suggested there maybe, could be, peace in the middle east imminently. On Thursday that turned into talk of what perhaps could be one week? That’s what President Trump said it may take to hash out terms with Iran on a peace deal. And that was the only less than ideal related news item yesterday. First China issued an order to companies to ignore U.S. sanctions regarding Iranian oil. Less than two hours later there was a Chinese oil tanker that came under attack near the Strait of Hormuz (it turned out to be an Iranian attack). Shortly thereafter we learned U.S. destroyers came under attack from Iran – leading to the U.S. lighting up several attack boats and sites along the shoreline around the Strait. President Trump called it a “love tap” and said the ceasefire is still in place. And on back of that double dose of less-than-ideal news came a higher price for crude with oil reversing declines and rising in price for the day. On Thursday it did feel like talk of a potential peace deal may instead be the latest version of Ground Hog Day. Maybe we’ll know in a week?
Takeaway #2: Four Score?
No, my second takeaway today isn’t in reference to the Gettysburg Address but rather in regard to Florida’s map math. Last week was the week that Florida’s legislature approved Governor DeSantis’ redistricted map that sought to score four more congressional seats for the GOP. Seven days ago, I brought you my initial analysis of the map while concluding that based on the most recent trends in place the map did succeed in flipping four districts from Democrat voting majorities towards the GOP. At the same time, I pointed out that in order to engineer those new GOP friendly districts – there were at least three “safe” GOP seats that were weakened to what would be considered “likely” by prognosticators like Larry Sabato and the University of Virigina’s Center for Politics. Well, we now have Florida’s new congressional ratings based on the new map from Sabato and UVA, and what does it say? According to UVA, given current cycle trends, they see one likely GOP flip in Darren Soto’s 9th district (that now includes parts of Indian River County too); two Democrat seats that lean towards the GOP - Kathy Castor’s District 14, and the completely newly configured District 22 in Palm Beach County. Meanwhile, the newly redrawn District 25 that starts in Southern PBC is considered a toss-up. And according to UVA there are four “Safe” GOP seats that are now “Likely” GOP seats because of redistricting. So, in other words, UVA’s new ratings suggest one GOP pickup is likely, three pickups are probable, and four pickups are possible. As I mentioned at the time... The (reporting) oversimplification of maps and elections continued with the passage of Florida’s map. And of course, the related talking point is that Florida’s Republicans now have four additional congressional seats. Which, btw, I do hope to be the case. But as a person who happens to be a pragmatist and a highly accurate analyst...the oversimplification of things comes across like nails on a chalk board to me. Redistricting introduces maximum midterm volatility and what we have this year is unprecedented midterm volatility. Surprises will happen this year. The question is simply whether they will be near here. No race should be taken for granted by the GOP in Florida. There are no fait accomplis. UVA’s initial ratings given the headwinds Republicans face in this cycle reflect that reality. It’ll be a fight to the finish in at least a few of the newly drawn seats.
Takeaway #3: Back to the Future
The year was... Apple launched iTunes, AOL (which was still relevant) and Time Warner merged, Tiger Woods held all four majors’ titles simultaneously. It thankfully and mercifully was the last year I did music radio...George W. Bush was sworn in as President of the United States and 9/11 happened. The year was of course 2001. Here’s a question for you... In general, do you feel our society is better or worse off today compared to 25 years ago? No, I’m not talking about technological innovations. Of course, technology is world’s ahead of where it was in 2001. No, I’m not talking about the music because A) I don’t think it could have been worse than in 2001 – and also because the Christian music scene is amazing these days. I’m talking about our society at large. Yesterday, for the National Day of Prayer, several related stories and surveys surfaced. The most encouraging, but also the most eye opening, was what researchers from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research uncovered. The study showed that for the first time in 25 years, there are more people attending worship services than there were five years ago. According to the study’s findings, the average church congregation has increased by about 8% in size compared to where we were just prior to the COVID-related declines. However, at the same time, religious attendance is barely more than half of where it was 25 years ago. Looking at the trend line from the study, it’s not an oversimplification to say that you can basically draw a straight-line between the decline in religious attendance and a decline in civility in society. Right down to the absolute peak decline of religious attendance. Over the past 25 years, what year – what series of events – would you say represented the worst of civility in our society? I’d point to the window of time from the BLM riots through what unfolded on January 6th. That window of time coincided with the lowest documented church attendance in history (largely due to blue state and blue city lockdowns). Separate, but probably related, a recent Pew Research study found that more adults would prefer to live in the society we lived in 25 years ago than the one we live in today. And btw, save the music situation I’d agree. When you think about what’s broken down the most over the past 25 years – it's been morality. For perspective, as recently as the 2008 election, Barack Obama ran an election opposing gay marriage. Today the Democrat Party advocates for taxpayer funded gender reassignment surgeries. That’s how far down the road of moral bankruptcy our society has gone in just the last eighteen years – let alone 25. Nothing good comes from hate. No one will ever achieve happiness without God. If you’ve been thinking about reconnecting with your faith – make this the weekend you take the first step to do something about it. If you’ve not been thinking about reconnecting with your faith or perhaps finding it in the first place – however this encourages you to. If more of us, do it, this society will be a better place, and importantly we’ll personally be in a better place. None of us are going back to 25 years ago, however we can have the best of both worlds. It’s a choice.