Chinese Checkers, 737’s & Soybeans or Is There More to the Story? – Top 3 Takeaways – May 15th, 2026
Takeaway #1: 737’s & Soybeans
There were lots of warm and fluffy headlines that came out of the first day of meetings between President Trump and President Xi. President Trump said the talks were “extremely productive” and Xi said that the China-U.S. bilateral relationship was “the most important in the world”. But with that said, it may be the case that the biggest deal that’s done in China is one indicating that Boeing is back. China buying up to 200 737 Max planes after having previously moved after from Boeing jets is something that’s exciting for Boeing shareholders and employees after decades of mismanagement, underinvestment and highly questionable decision making (culminating in planes crashing)...but it’s not exactly big news about the Strait of Hormuz and the stuff that probably matters to you. What’s become clear during the two-day summit is that while China agrees with the U.S. that Iran shouldn’t have a nuclear weapon, and they very much want a reopened Strait of Hormuz too (47% of their oil supply travels through the Strait), the bigger prize that’s in their sight is Taiwan. This isn’t exactly news as China has threatened Taiwan’s sovereignty for years – including with use of its military during President Biden’s four years. But what’s now becoming clear is that the key for any much bigger deals beyond 737’s and soybeans to get done we’d first have to change our change our stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty in the eyes of Xi Jinping (or at least that’s what he’s currently suggesting). But the divide on that issue is probably bigger than wherever we are with our negotiations with the ‘Well Imamers’ in Iran. Yes, the freedom and future of the Taiwanese people is a big deal, but the biggest deal of all, and...
Takeaway #2: The reason Taiwan is the top-level Chinese priority is about AI
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the foundational enabler of the AI revolution as the largest semiconductor chip company in the world. What does that mean? It means Taiwan Semi manufactures chips for NVIDIA, for AMD, Apple, Broadcom and almost every other major semiconductor and AI-driven company. Over 70% of the global foundry chip market is produced in Taiwan with over 90% of the most advanced AI chips currently in use. The bottom line is that companies like the largest in the world, NVIDIA, couldn’t do what NVIDIA does if it wasn’t for what Taiwan Semi produces for it first. In the AI race the single most important and strategic location in the world isn’t in China or the United States but Taiwan. That’s what’s at stake in this conversation. If China were to control Taiwan, China could ensure a win in the AI-race and could use that power to supplant the United States as the world’s leading superpower. That obviously isn’t something we can just allow to happen. Sean Hannity had an exclusive interview with President Trump following the first meeting and President Trump said (speaking of President Xi and the Strait of Hormuz): President Xi would like to see a deal made. And he did offer, he said 'if I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help. It sounds nice, but it’s somewhat unclear what that means and with China aligned with Iran preceding the current conflict, it perhaps should be taken with a grain of salt. Either President Trump won’t ask for help, which is possible, or the kind of help Xi is offering isn’t the kind of help that’s in the rest of the world’s best interest, which is also possible. It may be the case that President Trump believes we’re about to reach resolution in Iran on our current course (after all none of us know what he knows). It’s important to remember that China’s a historically bad actor and what President Xi says and what he’s willing to do are two different things. Word is that China’s willing to play the long game knowing that President Trump has political pressure back home in this midterm election year. I was hopeful coming into the week that China might be the key to Iranian peace...but in the end it looks like it’s 737’s and soybeans. And on that note...
Takeaway #3: It’s not just Joel
Ok, so here we are at the end of another week with no new news out of the Strait of Hormuz (at least not anything good). Each day I look at Joel staring at the glass at me and can see the frustration he feels with the price of things. You might say Joel is a visible daily reminder of the mood of the average American. Someone who has supported President Trump, but someone who’s also a bit frustrated with President Trump because there still isn’t resolution in Iran which means prices will continue to remain higher for gas and for groceries indefinitely. As we’re wrapping up this week, we’re continuing to see a souring in the mood of the country. In the RealClear Politics polling averages President Trump’s approval rating on Iran is at 40%, the same as his overall approval rating, and approval of his handling of the economy is at a new low of 37%. The growing frustration has also culminated in the most predictive historical midterm election indicator – the generic ballot question – showing Democrats with their biggest advantage in this cycle yet...a 6.6% advantage which suggests that if the midterm election were held today what would play out would likely be a blue wave. For comparison’s sake on Election Day 2018 when Democrats flipped 41 seats in the House, the generic ballot stood at Democrats +7.3. The frustration with President Trump is growing and Democrats are benefiting. The great news is that the stock market continues to hit record highs day after day driven by the proliferation of the AI-age. The not-so-great news is that in the real economy it’s not translating. Maybe, just maybe this will be the weekend that something comes together? It would be huge for President Trump to return home with the big win Americans have been waiting for.