What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? May 18th, 2026
Iran, earnings and the Federal Reserve remain in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +2% (->1% last week)
- S&P 500: +8% (+>1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +13% (+>1% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were flat to higher last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -12% 2026 (-3% last week)
- Ether: -27% in 2026 (-4% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -17% in 2026 (-3% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were losers over the past week though they remain the best performers year-to-date.
- Gold: +6% 2026 (-4% last week)
- Silver: +10% in 2026 (-6% last week)
It was a week that was filled with optimism about what might occur during President Trump’s visit to China to start...and filled with concern about what may come next as the visit ended without resolution to major issues like the Strait of Hormuz or the Russia – Ukraine war. In the end stocks finished the week close to where they began it – with a lot of volatility – which included new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in between. While stocks performed best, significant selling set back in for digital currencies and for precious metals as well.
Until Friday, the AI-fueled tech boom had been enough to carry the market despite a growing wall of worry about geopolitical issues and the state of consumers with rising energy prices that have led to increasing overall inflation of late. Friday’s market selloff on the absence of a significant progress having been made in China, could prove to be a one-off, or it could indicate investor fatigue from a potentially overheated market.
Many have compared the record run for AI-related companies to the dot com bubble. That type of outcome is unlikely because the companies involved are real companies producing real products as opposed to unproven concepts with dot com attached to their names – however the speed of the runup of many names is similar. This figures to be an interesting week as far as direction going forward is concerned. Earnings, meanwhile, have been terrific.
As of Friday, 91% of companies had reported for the first quarter of the year. The results have been particularly strong with earnings having grown at a staggering 28% year-over-year, the largest gain in earnings dating back to 2021 when companies began to rebound from COVID-era lockdowns. It’s proving to be a historically great quarterly reporting period. This has allowed investors to look past the current economic headwinds.
Now for valuation calculations... Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 31.90
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.22
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 49% drop from here, flat with a week ago, as stock prices and fundamentals were mostly unchanged. The market has equaled its risk adjusted highs, as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 49% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.