Q&A – How Late is Too Late to Change Voter Sentiment in Midterm Elections?
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Today’s entry: Hey, Brian, you were talking about the inflation report this morning and, the Republican messaging on it not being worse than Biden. It got me thinking, you know, summer's about to hit. Kids are going to be home from school and I did a quick search and it looks like parents, families spend about 20 to 30% higher on their grocery bills during the summer. I think, there needs to be a little bit more urgency with the Republicans on getting these costs down if they want to have a chance.
Bottom Line: You’re exactly right. As I’ve always said...politicians can lie to you about what proposed policies will do, and those inclined to believe the politician will, however you can’t lie to people about what is or isn’t in their wallet – because they know. The crux of that statement applies to the situation we currently find ourselves in.
President Trump can say that oil and gas prices will come way down when there’s resolution in Iran, and he’s almost certainly right about that, however the problem obviously...is when? As in when will there be resolution in Iran and a reopened Strait of Hormuz? At the onset of the Iran war President Trump predicted that the timeline for resolution would be between four to six weeks. This was something repeated by the administration, having been discussed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt during week three of the conflict.
The long end of the originally articulated curve, six weeks, would have placed us at an April 12th timeline for resolution. Instead of resolution to the war/Strait within six weeks, the president announced a ceasefire that’s mostly held, however with an effectively closed Strait of Hormuz during this time. Also of particular importance, there’s no indication of resolution that’s forth coming.
Had Iran come to a satisfactory conclusion during the first half of April, the consumer inflation rate would have come in below 3% in April as opposed to three-year highs at 3.8%. Also, wholesale inflation would have been much less than the reported 6% rate last week – a potential peak into what we could be in store for is there isn’t resolution in the middle east sooner than later as producer prices today often become reflected in consumer prices later. All of this is to say that today’s note is on point.
With inflation at three-year highs, and with no clear timeline on when there will be relief, the upcoming summer months are not only potentially more challenging months for parents and families already struggling with affordability – that could cement the midterms for Democrats politically. As I mentioned recently:
In the RealClear Politics polling averages President Trump’s approval rating on Iran is at 40%, the same as his overall approval rating, and approval of his handling of the economy is at a new low of 37%. The growing frustration has also culminated in the most predictive historical midterm election indicator – the generic ballot question – showing Democrats with their biggest advantage in this cycle yet...a 6.6% advantage which suggests that if the midterm election were held today what would play out would likely be a blue wave.
So how late is too late to turn things around for President Trump and Republicans generally in this midterm cycle? The answer is by August. Since the onset of the polling age in the 1930’s, whatever party was favored on the generic ballot on August 1st, fared best/won the midterm election cycle. That means that at most President Trump must stick the landing no later than July...and that’s pushing it.
If the president can stick the landing in Iran quickly from here and laser focuses on affordability issues at home – there's still a little time to move the political needle based on history. But should that not occur, this cycle is now starting to pace into blue wave territory – and not because Americans at large want Democrats, because they don’t. Democrats are less popular than Republicans. However, with persuadable voters, frustration manifests itself in voting out incumbents in power.