Disruption In the Strait, the Workplace & Politically – Top 3 Takeaways – May 20th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Disruption
The year is still relatively young, but disruption is proving to be the word/theme of the year this year. International trade. Disrupted. President Trump’s tariffs. Disrupted. The rise of the new China-led Axis powers. Disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz. Disrupted. Congressional maps in Florida and across the country. Disrupted. Thomas Massie’s Political Career and his alleged “Boner Phone” (although after yesterday’s result he will have more time to spend with his pinecone). Disrupted (that’s also true for any anti-Trump Republican who’s run in a primary thus far). Then there’s just about everything happening with AI behind the scenes that is in the process of disrupting everything. On that note consider this story from CNBC yesterday – headline: The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream – and blue-collar workers are poised to win. Yes, it may very well be the case that in the age of AI, what’s old (as in a focus on the trades), becomes new again. That story btw, supports my consistent contestation that AI will produce more new jobs than it will takeaway – just commonly in different places than where many of the better jobs exist today. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was quoted in the story as saying about the rise of AI: This is the largest infrastructure buildout in human history that is going to create a lot of jobs. AT&T Chairman and CEO John Stankey was also quoted in the story saying: As a society and within the United States, we’ve put a huge premium in value socially on a college degree, maybe for good reason, but in some cases ... we maybe have missed the mark. That hasn’t been optimal when you see the cost of education increasing at higher than the rate of inflation and yet we’re short HVAC repair people, we’re short electricians, we’re short technicians that can go in and work on fiber. That’s right, move over coders. It’s HVAC specialists, welders, and fiber technicians that are now in high demand. Fun fact, over the past four years the four fastest growing careers (percentage increase in jobs available) are with those who work with their hands. 1) Robotics technicians (113%), 2) HVAC Engineers (78%), 3) Industrial employees (51%), 4) General trades - electricians, welders, construction - (30%). That’s disruptive to the past 40+ year workforce trends too. But back to what remains on the minds of many...what’s happening with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz?
Takeaway #2: The Dividing lines
The world believes we’ll soon be back to bombing Iran. And when I say the world, I’m talking about everyone from foreign leaders, to worldwide investors to Joel Malkin. As the saying in the financial markets goes, price is truth. Since the second week of the Iran war the price for WTI crude, the oil that ultimately you and I use, is $80 on the low end on April 17th, the day that we briefly heard that the Strait of Hormuz was once again open and $115 on April 6th, when global supply fears had fully kicked in. As of today, prices are at $102 per barrel after the president told members of congress last night that the war will be over “very quickly” preceding those comments the price was $108 per barrel. It’s a price higher than on Monday when President Trump announced he was pausing a resumption of bombing that had been planned for Tuesday. The bets are hedged that the war will resume and that’s also what Russia and China are planning for too. It’s easiest to look at the Iran situation through our prism, and for as frustrated as most Americans are about the price of gas and groceries, what we’re experiencing isn’t even close to the story of what’s happening overseas. Iran is in Great Depression like conditions. China has lost the supply of 49% of its oil (through the loss of its Venezuelan supply and the Strait of Hormuz) and that appears to be the crux of what’s being discussed with Russian President Putin and Xi in Beijing today. China is looking to complete a pipeline from Russia to China that would sure up their energy supply so that they wouldn’t be at the mercy or Iranian supplies or theoretically anything that we would be potentially disrupting. What’s clear is that the top two new axis powers – China and Russia aren’t moving towards potential peace and prosperity but rather closer together and are becoming more reliant on one another than ever before. This, incidentally, underscores the importance of President Trump’s efforts to undo the axis network that China built which included Iran, Venezuela and Cuba too. As I mentioned from the beginning of this war, what’s happening with Iran isn’t just about preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon – it's about preventing World War III by limiting what China is capable of doing. When it comes to China and Russia...
Takeaway #3: It’s not getting better from here
Russia wants Ukraine (and to reconstruct the old USSR), China wants Taiwan which would lead to world AI domination (and thus overall world domination). There’s a new cold war that’s taking shape. After President Trump’s trip to China last week which netted close to nothing, and the Putin/XI meeting today, the dividing lines are clear. And in the words of President Trump speaking of Iran and the broader global outlook yesterday... Whether it's popular or not popular, I have to do it — because I'm not going to let the world be blown up on my watch. It's not going to happen. President Trump also indicated that the paused Iranian bombing he had planned for Tuesday would only remain paused until Saturday, or Sunday or perhaps early next week...while the latest incarnation of a deal is being attempted with Middle eastern influence. The seemingly elusive and fluid timeline likely isn’t what those seeking a quick resolution are looking to hear.