What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? May 26th, 2026
Iran, earnings and the Federal Reserve remain in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +4.5% (+2% last week)
- S&P 500: +9% (+1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +13% (+>1% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were flat to higher last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -13% 2026 (-1% last week)
- Ether: -29% in 2026 (-1% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -21% in 2026 (-2% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were losers over the past week though they remain the best performers year-to-date.
- Gold: +5% 2026 (-1% last week)
- Silver: +8% in 2026 (-1% last week)
Last week was yet another week filled with optimism and record highs for the major stock indexes – while cryptos continued their massive muti-year underperformance and gold and silver took a breather once again. The optimism around stocks continued a consistent theme... 1) Belief that the AI driven economy continues to be so powerful investors can look past perceived short-term inflation and related economic concerns and... 2) Hope for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – which is the Ground Hog Day like-scenario we found ourselves in on Friday. This as news of President Trump staying in Washington over the weekend to work on a potential Iran deal was in focus.
Until recently, the AI-fueled tech boom had been enough to carry the market despite increased worries about geopolitical and related inflation concerns. However, there was a sign of increased focus on the fundamental economy by investors more recently. The price of oil has increasingly influenced stock market sentiment. We’re entering today with oil trading at about $93 per barrel, which is the lowest price in about five weeks (April 20th). The lower price for oil is predicated on the notion that we are truly on the precipice of a deal that would reopen to the Strait of Hormuz and of course could change quickly if something doesn’t come together once again.
Many have compared the record run for AI-related companies to the dot com bubble. That type of outcome is unlikely because the companies involved are real companies producing real products as opposed to unproven concepts with dot com attached to their names – however the speed of the runup of many names is similar. Importantly, earnings have been terrific.
As of Friday, 94% of companies had reported for the first quarter of the year. The results have been particularly strong with earnings having grown at a staggering 28% year-over-year, the largest gain in earnings dating back to 2021 when companies began to rebound from COVID-era lockdowns. It’s proving to be a historically great quarterly reporting period. This has allowed investors to look past the current economic headwinds.
Now for valuation calculations... Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 32.19
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.22
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 50% drop from here, slightly higher than a week ago, as stock prices advanced a bit faster than fundamentals. The market has equaled its risk adjusted highs, as it’s priced at the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 50% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.