This Isn’t Ground Hog Day, Winds of Change & Hurricane Season - Top 3 Takeaways – June 1st, 2026
Takeaway #1: A not-so-final determination?
On Friday President Trump said he was going into the Situation Room to make a “final determination” on what would be with Iran. With news of a potential peace deal coming together, at the forefront of reporting last week...from the stock market to the energy market – optimism reigned supreme. Stocks finished up the month of May shattering the old adage of “sell in May and go away”, as it proved to be the best May for stocks in 36 years and one of the top three Mays in history. Performance that was even more impressive when you consider how well stocks performed preceding the month of May. Friday’s rally was fueled (pun intended) in part by oil, which dropped to six-week lows in the $87 range as traders mostly believed the “final determination” would equal resolution to the Strait of Hormuz. But then Saturday came, the President left the Situation Room, and there was in fact no final determination that had been made. In fact, by Saturday night, in an interview with Lara Trump, the president said he was “in no hurry” to make a deal. The full context of the comment was this: I'd like to say I'm in a hurry, because you know what, gasoline prices are going to come tumbling down, but if you're going to be in a hurry, you're not going to make a good deal," Mr. Trump said. "And slowly but surely we're getting, I think, what we want, and if we don't get what we want, we're going to end it a different way. But here’s the key – if that sounded like backtracking it actually wasn’t because as we found out the president taped the interview on Thursday – before what he declared was final determination day. One notable comment did come out of the interview though...President Trump said this... the one guarantee that I have to have is that there will be no nuclear weapons, they (Iran) agreed to that, and it was very interesting. Notably, on Sunday following that interview, Iran state media didn’t refute that claim and they reported that the U.S. had agreed to release $15 billion of frozen Iranian money. The next complicating factor is the development that Iran’s president has offered his resignation citing a lack of authority in decision making. This is consistent with President Trump’s suggestion that there had been a lot of infighting. So, here’s the not-so-insignificant thing. The biggest red line of all for President Trump has been no nukes. If in fact he has successfully negotiated that into the deal that’s in progress – that is a historic win that would certainly make all of this worthwhile – and there’s little doubt we can figure out the rest from here. We know that Iran has been trying to negotiate operating control of the Strait of Hormuz coming out of this...that’s a no go for President Trump. By what’s being said and what isn’t being said – that would appear to be the final sticking point. No, the final determination didn’t lead to a final determination – which is frustrating; however, this isn’t another Ground Hog Day scenario within this 3+ month conflict. There appears to be reason to believe that substantive, historic, progress is being made.
Takeaway: #2 Winds of Change?
The year was... Operation Desert Storm liberated Kuwait from Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi invasion. The Soviet Union dissolved. The Rodney King beating and riots took place. The first, and only, worst-to-first World Series took place between the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves, Joel Malkin still had some hair - though it was imperiled. It was also the year that the Scorpions released the song “Wind of Change” capturing the world’s events, most notable the fall of the USSR and Berlin Wall. The year was 1991 and I was thinking of this yesterday as I was weighing what might be in the process of taking place. If Iran can be resolved without hope of a nuclear bomb they think will bring about a well Imam, that’s historically huge, as is the regime change in Venezuela ,and what’s about to take place in Cuba too. President Trump will have achieved historic victories knee capping China’s modern Axis alliance – preventing World War III from being on the periphery in the process. But it’s not just what Trump is doing that could be in the process of changing the path of history. It’s what voters are starting to do in countries around the world. It was less than a month ago that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party (the most conservative – Trump aligned party) won big across the country. In the words of Farage, the election was a truly historic shift in British politics, with the ruling leftwing Labour Party being "wiped out". Yesterday, halfway across the world in Columbia, a similar political earthquake began to playout. In the country that’s currently controlled by drug cartels and socialists, voters advanced a presidential candidate that’s the country’s version of Argentina’s free-market leader Javier Mieli. A runoff election will take place on June 21st as no presidential candidates pulled in over 50% of the vote – however – well over 50% of the vote went to the two most conservative candidates. Columbia could be on the verge of regime change that’s as big, or bigger, than what the U.S. is doing...and best of all – it's the people making it happen. Winds of change are here. This could be a historic summer of geopolitical progress. Speaking of winds...
Takeaway: #3 Hurricane season is here...
But El Nino and Saharan dust are too. For the fifth straight year we’re kicking off hurricane season without a named storm. That’s an early win. But unlike the previous five years, we’re also kicking off hurricane season with a full dose of dust, El Nino driven wind shear, and a below average hurricane season prediction from the National Hurricane Center reflecting these realities. If you look at the NHC’s map, what you’ll see is hopefully something we’ll grow accustomed to seeing...Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next seven days. Hurricane season is here, threats in the tropics are not, it’s the best positioned we’ve been at the start of a season in the 28 years I’ve covered hurricane season. Let’s hope that translates into the least active hurricane season of the past 28 years as well. There’s a reason for optimism.