A Weekend w/Iran - Top 3 Takeaways – June 22nd, 2026
Takeaway #1: Are we there yet?
If you’re following the news out of Iran with the MOU and the Strait of Hormuz and feel a sense of deja vu, it’s not just you. Throughout the course of the past couple of months with the U.S. ceasefire with Iran in place, and the attempted negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait, I’ve often used the analogy of the average American (regardless of age), effectively taking the position of a child in the backseat of the car on a road trip who regularly asks...are we there yet? On that note let me put a message in front of you and you tell me when I first crafted it in speaking of the MOU and a potential peace deal: Maybe it’s a mirage, the latest in potential optics being used as a stall tactic attempting to string President Trump along that will only be postponed again in the end...however if it’s not – and it’s being reported inside of Iran as the real thing – it would indicate a belief that resolution with the U.S. will be achieved. In the end, these are Islamic terrorists and as I’ve said right along...even if we do have a signed deal on Friday...we’d have a signed deal with who? Islamic terrorists...and if you can’t trust well-Imaming Islamic terrorists who can you trust...? Other than of course Pakistan’s Fantastic Man – who played a key role in negotiations as it turned out. That is part of the message I shared with you a week ago – though the message and the point(s) behind it obviously hold despite the MOU having been signed by both sides and the Strait of Hormuz having actually reopened...at least temporarily. I amended one aspect of the backseat car analogy last Monday though. While we weren’t there yet...I mentioned that we were getting close. But of course close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades and even if you’re close to your road trip destination – a flat tire or heaven forbid a bad car accident could change everything before you get there. You most likely are aware of what’s happened in the news above the fold...so to speak but let’s quickly walk through these details. The 14-point MOU was signed last Wednesday, the Strait began to reopen, Hezbollah then launched an attack on Israeli forces in Lebanon killing five, Israel then responded by lighting the place up once again. VP Vance then delayed an in-person meeting to begin the formal detailed negotiations of the many pieces of a permanent peace plan on Friday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said they were once again...
Takeaway: #2 Closing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday...
but President Trump refuted this and it was around this time on Saturday that Vance made the trip to Switzerland to meet with Iranian officials after all. Rather than reinventing the wheel on the next most important point, in the immediate aftermath of the signing of the MOU last Wednesday my top takeaways last Thursday were entitled: Israel is the key. As part of the message, I mentioned this: 1) Will Israel cease operations in Lebanese territory? 2) Will Hezbollah cease attacks into Israel if they do? 3) Will Iran agree to sign the framework for a peace plan if there isn’t any change with number one or number two? The answer to date is that Israel has shown no indication that they intend to leave Lebanon. Hezbollah has shown that they’ll continue to target Israeli forces in the region, and Iran has publicly stated that Israel’s presence is a violation of the MOU. On Vance’s first day of talks with Iranian officials over the weekend – Israel dominated the conversation. And here’s the thing – Iran's right about this. The very first of the 14-points in the MOU reads like this: The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this mou declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other. Now, President Trump agreed to this for Israel, Israel via PM Netanyahu did not. There are no indications by Israel this will change as of now. Which means what exactly? If Israel doesn’t do what we agreed that they would do, is there actually deal even for 60 days that is in place? As I said last week...
Takeaway: #3 Israel is the key...
and the outlook as a result is extremely murky. To give you an idea of the mood in Israel today – here's a headline from a leading Israeli news outlet yesterday: Trump goes wobbly This shameful fiasco is all to save a dollar a gallon in the price of oil? The point is this...the MOU is not a popular thing among the Israeli people. And the next complicating factor on this front is this...it’s not just the U.S. with a big election cycle this fall...Before Americans vote in November – Israeli's go to the polls in October with Bibi’s future hanging in the balance. Politics and the timing of elections aren’t only playing a potentially large role in decisions here – the same is true over there. A theoretically leaked U.S. intelligence report over the weekend was reported as stating that U.S. intelligence agencies believe, in part based upon military operations in the region – that Israel is intentionally trying to sabotage the MOU to continue its desired campaign against Hezbollah for the foreseeable. If the first three lines of the MOU that we agreed to aren’t adhered to...we’re not there yet and it’s possible this may just be a big speedbump that we move past, or it may hold the potential to flip this car before getting to our desired getaway. Time will tell. For now, the thing to watch is what is or isn’t happening in the Strait of Hormuz. So, about that... On Saturday 55 ships made the track through the Strait of Hormuz carrying 92% of the product that would have moved through the Strait pre-war. This means that the ships that got through will especially large and commonly filled with lots of crude. However, by Sunday, that seemed to take a turn. Following the warning by the IRGC that the Strait was closed – may shippers took a wait and see approach. However, after a while it was determined that the Strait was still open as President Trump said was the case and traffic resumed with 32 ships carrying about 53% of the typical cargo through the strait for the day. On the one hand we’re trying to hash out a deal with Islamic terrorists which is about as fraught as it gets...and on the other hand we’re trying to negotiate on behalf of Israel in the leadup to an election cycle. We all want to successfully make our way to Wally World during this Summer excursion...but just likely Wally World we don’t want to get there only to find out that it’s (or the Strait of Hormuz in this case) is closed. This figures to be an especially important week to see if there’s a realistic path forward from here. The public breakup with President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni has continued to play out in recent days over something petty at best. It just may be the case that there’s a public breakup looming with much bigger stakes in play with President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanahu. At this point it seems that they need to get on the same page before any more pages of a potential permanent peace deal with Iran can be crafted.