What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? June 29th, 2026
The Iranian Peace Deal, the Strait of Hormuz and tech stocks are in focus entering this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +7% (+>1% last week)
- S&P 500: +7% (-2% last week)
- Nasdaq: +9% (-4% last week)
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies suffered brutal losses over the past week with digital currencies at multiyear lows. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -32% 2026 (-4% last week)
- Ether: -47% in 2026 (-5% last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -37% in 2026 (-8% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were significant losers over the past week, for the third straight week, and both are negative for the year as the speculative trading in precious metals has been unwinding throughout the first half of the year:
- Gold: -5% 2026 (-2% last week)
- Silver: -15% in 2026 (-6% last week)
It was a tale of two markets yet again last week. On the one hand, the Nasdaq was lower each day last week, and significant selling hit many of the highest-flying technology names in what’s been described as a “tech wreck”. This included SpaceX, which enters this week trading just about its debut price of $150 per share – off 32% from its post-IPO peak. This was enough for OpenAI, the parent of ChatGPT, to consider delaying their planned IPO until next year. The IPO delay led to additional concerns about the potential for less investment money to be flowing through the space generally leading to additional selling with the space.
However, amid the tech selling was a broadening out of the market as money coming out of tech names commonly has been flowing to sectors that had underperformed the broader averages – a la financials and healthcare. This rotation could be a good long-term sign for the markets that have become especially tech heavy given the outsized influence they’ve played compared to historical norms.
Of course, investors have also been focused on the developments with the Iran Memorandum of Understanding which, holds the potential to bring an end to the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the news cycle hasn’t been the best over the past week – with repeated aggressions by Iran and repeated military responses by the U.S. - 73% of product that would have ordinarily flowed through the Strait of Hormuz made its way through. Notably, the price of Brent Crude fell to pre-Iran war levels last week, and WTI crude fell to the lowest levels since the onset of the war and enters this week at $70 per barrel – which is $20 lower than the average inflation adjusted price for oil on this date.
This week we’ll get a series of huge economic reports including the ADP and BLS employment reports and key manufacturing information too.
Now for valuation calculations... Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 31.45
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.23
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 48% drop from here, 2% lower compared to a week ago, as stock prices were lower and fundamentals were mostly unchanged. The market is expensive on a historically comparative basis, as it’s priced at the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 48% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.