2026 Midterm Election Update – July 8th, 2026
Bottom Line: Since the advent of the current two-party system (41 midterm elections), we've averaged the President's party losing 3 U.S. Senate seats and 28 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm election cycles. If that were to happen this cycle, Republicans would narrowly retain control the Senate, however Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives – which they last held in 2022.
Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need to flip four net seats to gain control, as Vice President JD Vance, as President of the Senate, would split 50-50 ties.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority (with four vacancies), meaning Democrats only need to flip four net seats to gain control of the chamber.
There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats (1934 during FDR's first term, 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term, and 2002 during George W. Bush's first term) thus only 3 out of 41 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party netting additional congressional seats. Here's another way of looking at it... History suggests there's a 93% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this cycle.
Will history repeat itself this year? There’s been one polling indicator which has been 100% accurate in midterm election cycles. The generic ballot. Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s, the party favored on Election Day on the generic ballot has fared best in every cycle. In the most recent cycle, the 2022 Midterm elections, Republicans were favored by 2.5% in the RealClear Politics average of polls and ended up winning 2.8% more of the vote nationally. So how about this cycle?
As of today, the generic ballot says:
- DEM +6.0% (vs. 4.9% June 24th)
In the financial markets you’ll occasionally have what are known as “relief rallies”. Just as certain stocks won’t go up every day in a straight line, it’s often the case that underperforming investments which have come under heavy selling will temporarily bounce from what are called “oversold” conditions. Those relief rallies don’t necessarily mark an end to the overall trend, however. The relief rally often just marks a pause in the longer-term trend.
The reason I’ve referenced relief rallies, is that it just may be the case that Republicans experienced a bit of a relief rally immediately following the news of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. At the peak of the Iran war Democrat enjoyed a 7.7% generic ballot advantage. Their largest of the cycle and a figure exceeding 2018’s blue wave election cycle and on par with 2006’s blue wave. Two weeks ago, that advantage had declined to under 5% and it appeared as though the GOP may have gained a bit of momentum with the positive Iranian developments. Two weeks later half of the progress achieved by Republicans has been given back and the cycle is back to a landscape that would have Democrats on track to make significant gains congressional and in state elections across the country if the election were to be held today.
A wildcard adding to the uncertainty this cycle are numerous states redrawing maps in advance of the midterm elections – including Florida. Redrawn maps will all factor into outcomes in a potentially unprecedented way.
Retirements also have historically proved to be significant. Congressional incumbents running for reelection have won over 90% of the time. It’s common for members of Congress who feel especially vulnerable to retire as opposed to potentially losing an election. Often the party with the most retirements performs worse in midterms. On that note to date here are the announced retirements in the House of Representatives:
- Democrats: 22
- Republicans: 36
And in the United States Senate:
- Democrats: 4
- Republicans: 6
I’ll track these dynamics from time-to-time as we head into this year’s midterm election cycle.