The Blockade is Back On & Who’s (Practically) Florida’s Next Governor – Top 3 Takeaways – July 14th, 2026
Takeaway #1: The blockade is back on
Monday brought about a significant turn of events with Iranian policy and specifically what is and isn’t happening in the Strait of Hormuz. What is happening? President Trump announced he’d reimposed a blockade of Iranian oil in through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s a big deal for a couple of reasons. The first meaningful reason is that in terms of our military posture pertaining to Iran, we’re now operationally back to where we were before the signing of the MOU. The next significant reason is that at a minimum that means that there will be approximately 1.8 million fewer barrels of oil traversing through the Strait of Hormuz per day. While the hit is obviously the biggest with Iran, that’s less oil supply hitting the world market each day which was a key reason for why the price of oil for Brent crude recently reached prewar levels and why WTI crude was close to those prices to at $68 per barrel – or a price that under normal conditions equates to gas being at about $3 per gallon. But then the next level news was that President Trump announced that evidentially the United States will now be controlling the Strait and we’ll be charging a 20% fee for all cargo going through the Strait. Specifically, the president posted this to Truth: The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP. Whether that comes to fruition is something that remains to be seen, but here’s the implications of what that could mean if it does occur. First, we’re clearly keeping a significant military presence in the region for the foreseeable. Second, the average annual value of the goods moving through the Strait of Hormuz equals about $1.1 trillion per year. That would mean total fees of $220 billion per year would be collected by the U.S. That fee, which would effectively act as a 20% tariff, would mean a higher price for goods moving through the Strait. Only 2.7% of our country’s energy came through the Strait preceding the war (all of it going to California), so it’s unlikely to play a major role in prices stateside, but it would drive up prices for energy overseas. However, it would hold the potential to add to tech inflation stateside as helium, which is key in AI processing, as 25% of U.S. helium does move through the Strait of Hormuz. Predictably oil moved higher on the news with WTI crude, the stuff you and I use, up by just over $6. But what was interesting was that the move was only $6 higher. Oil averaged over $102 in May, and was $96 in early June just prior to the signing of the MOU, and it’s about $80’s as of today. The Trump administration also said that an average of 15 million barrels of oil were making their way through the Strait of Hormuz on average every day. That’s a lot of oil, though it’s still about 10 million barrels fewer than what typically came through prior to the war. What happens the next couple of days will be especially important to see. I’m also especially skeptical about the ability to impose the 20% fee to use the Strait. Independent of whether we could effectively impose that form of toll...the economics of that number for shippers would quickly become prohibitive – especially with elevated insurance costs for shippers as well. As I’ve said price is truth and so the energy markets are telling a story that suggests the end of attempted diplomacy with Iran isn’t here just yet. Although...
Takeaway #2: Amphibious assets are now all in place
Something I’ve keep an eye on during the attempted Iranian peace process is our country’s military posture. There recently was a significant development in the Middle East. Quietly President Trump doubled the U.S. amphibious assault assets in the middle east. This included the adding of the amphibious assault ship the USS Boxer and the amphibious transport dock ship the USS Portland which moved to the middle east with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. What would the idea be here with a doubling of amphibious assets? Let’s say that President Trump ordered the seizing of the most critical energy access port for Iran, Kharg Island. Military experts had previously outlined that this level of resources may be necessary to lead an air, ground and sea seizing of Kharg. Also of note the recent strikes against Iran have largely focused on Qeshm Island which Iran has regularly used to attack ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz. This all could be posturing towards Iran seeking to use maximum pressure to exact a desired diplomatic outcome. At the same time, each time we’ve seen President Trump draw troops into position...he’s used them. For that reason, the recent ramping up of resources in the region could be pointing to an effort not just to block Iran’s oil but to potentially seek to seize it too.
Takeaway #3: For all practical purposes
Five weeks from today is Florida’s primary election day and according to one of the state’s top pollsters...the GOP primary in the governor’s races is already over...for all practical purposes. Specifically, the conclusion from Tyson’s latest gubernatorial poll, from the pollster was this...Byron Donalds is for all practical purposes, the Republican nominee for Governor. That was due to Donalds polling at 48% compared to Lt. Governor Jay Collins in second place with...just 9%. James Fishback checked in with 8%, with Paul Reener in the rear with 4% support. What we’ve seen is that the needle really hasn’t moved throughout this primary season. Much of that was due to Donalds having President Trump’s endorsement before he entered the race, nevertheless even if the polling is way off...It’s safe to say this is Donalds’ race. I’ve never seen a candidate close what’s close to a 40-point gap within five weeks. For that reason, it’s that much more notable that Donalds is running on building on Governor DeSantis’s successes. Like DeSantis, he’s also seeking the total elimination of property taxes and balanced AI-data center growth as well. Donalds isn’t taking the safe path politically and sitting on what appears to be a big lead. He appears ready to lead on the issues given his beliefs.