September’s Hurricane History - 2026
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems are two different animals, however. At the midway point of hurricane season, we can once again take solace in South Florida having successfully navigated the first three months of hurricane season free from the impact of hurricanes.
There’s plenty of good news as we wade into the peak of hurricane season. Due to the presence of El Nino providing wind shear and significant Saharan dust plumes that have been crossing the Atlantic, what was projected to be a below average season is pacing in that direction.
Entering September last year, during what proved to be a below average hurricane season, six named storms and one category five hurricane had already occurred. Entering this September, we've only had five weak tropical storms to contend with in the Atlantic region to date.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking the remnants of Dolly as it approaches the Bahamas as a rain event, and will likely remain a rain event for the next several days for the Bahamas and South Florida as it has only a 10% chance of reorganizing, otherwise it’s quiet. Ordinarily Saharan dust, which inhibits tropical development, abates during the first half of August. Similar to last year, the dust is following as we've entered September.
As for September’s hurricane history – it’s notable for two reasons. It's the most active month of hurricane season and the historical peak day of hurricane season is September 10th. Here’s a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Since tracking of the Atlantic Hurricane season began in 1851:
- 33% of hurricanes
- 37% of tropical storms
On average, 3.6 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes have formed in September. Statistically the calendar says we’re halfway through hurricane season. In terms of historical storm development, if this season is consistent with historical norms, most of the season is ahead of us. Entering September, here's what history has shown.
- 36% of all tropical storms have formed during September
- 40% of all hurricanes have formed during the month
In other words, close to two-thirds of activity happens from this point forward historically. In happier news, once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Fingers crossed...