Florida's Data Dump & Changing Turnout Trends – Top 3 Takeaways – October 29th, 2026
Takeaway #1: What are we doing?
This just in. I'm wired to win. I never get tired of it, and after over a decade of Florida winning in everything from education to the economy, I'm certainly not interested to find out what it's like to live in a losing state this day in age. On that note... Question(s). Is ranking 44th out 50th generally a good thing? If the only states that rank worse than your state in any particular category are exclusively blue states with long standing Democrat control is that likely to be a good thing? Following Tuesday's vote in Martin County to impose a yearlong moratorium on hyperscale data center proposals, and a story by Fox Business – highlighting the changing tone of Florida's business friendliness, I went to update my research on the economic impact these moratoriums are having...and what did I see? That Florida now ranks 44th in the buildout of the AI economy. Specifically, there are now only six states that have taken more restrictive actions (through either a statewide ban or the impact of local bans, as is the case in Florida), than Florida. The only states that have done more to block data center buildouts than what local governments in our state have done are: Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland and New York. That's it. That's the company Florida now keeps with the fastest growth aspect of our economy. That's also three spots worse than in my previous update. There are now 47 local governments across the state who've acted to block, delay and/or restrict data center projects. How do you think the future will look for our state if we suddenly go from consistently having had one of the top growth economies in the country, to near the bottom of the country? As Florida's reputation for no longer being business friendly in the age of AI grows, the unquantified negative economic impact into the future by businesses that no longer seek to expand or relocate into our state is an unknown. But here is what's known.
Takeaway #2: There are already 20 different data center projects across this state that have been stopped.
And when using estimates for the size of the likely investments – approximately $32 billion in direct investment has now been turned away, along with 7,750 jobs totaling $630 million in annual lost income opportunity for employees (in today's dollars) and $448 million in lost property tax revenue annually as well. I take a look at what's happening with local governments across our state, and I keep thinking? What are we doing? For nearly two decades our state has thrived by taking advantage of the economic opportunities presented to us commonly due to the anti-business/economic growth policies of other states. And now, just like that in the AI age, we're one of those states. And not because of poor policy by the state, but rather due to the poor decision making that local governments have been doing. The state of Florida did everything it needed to do to set local governments up for success when the data center bill became law earlier this year. But instead, 47 local governments have now done what New York governor Kathy Hochul has done. If there's no distance in a major AI economic policy between the state of New York and say, Martin County or Palm Beach County, what are the odds they're making good decisions locally? When you voted for county commissioners did you think you were voting for Kathy Hochul's policies? Or did you think you were voting for commissioners who were more likely to share President Trump's economic beliefs and implement his desired policies? To be clear, the Palm Beach and Martin County commissions have unanimously voted against President Trump's data center policy position and in favor of Kathy Hockul's and Xi Jing Pings. That's more than just a little concerning. And I'll say again that none of these governments who've made these decisions have any credibility when it comes to talking about potential revenue shortfalls if Amendment 3 passes. They're happy to send away to other states billions of dollars in economic impact and hundreds of millions of dollars in property tax revenue per year. What are we doing?
Takeaway #3: Narrowing the gap
The GOP is keenly aware of one thing as we're five days away from Election Day. Turnout among Republicans has been lacking nationally. However, that tide, at least relative to Democrats, has been changing. By now it's no secret that in recent election cycles Democrats have been the most likely to vote by mail with Republicans more likely to vote in person either early or on Election Day. Just over a week ago based on data from the University of Florida's Election Lab, Democrats held a 19+ point turnout advantage for those who'd already voted by mail or had voted early. However, as of yesterday, that advantage was down to just over 13 points. From a Republican perspective that's clearly not good – however it's not as bad as it may seem. In the 2022 midterms that Republicans won nationally by 2.8 - points – Democrats held an advantage of 8.7 points in turnout heading into Election Day. The current pre-election day Democrat turnout advantage is now down to 4.6 - points. If Republicans can continue to finish the early voting process outvoting Democrats at the same pace as they have over the past week – we should be close to partisan turnout parity with 2022 heading into Election Day. With NPAs appearing by all accounts to be mostly breaking the Democrats' way – parity with 2022 isn't likely to net a similar result for Republicans this year – however partisan turnout parity could be enough to prevent a blue wave from happening this year potentially making the difference in the senate. In the RealClear Politics polling average there are currently five senate races with under 2-points separating the candidates – with another two separated by about 3 (including in Ohio where President Trump was campaigning last night). It's likely that a point or two in turnout nationally either way will decide who controls the United States senate in January. It looks to be that close. Republicans are narrowing the gap, but they need to runup the score with in-person voting from here or it's possible Democrats could control the senate for the next 6+ years.