Biden Backlash, Trump’s Charge & God’s Plan – Top 3 Takeaways – June 20th, 2023
- Biden backlash. It’s one thing to be a historically poor president. It’s another thing to be a historically poor president and to have your administration arrest the former president and top opposition in the next presidential election. It’s a whole other thing to be a historically poor president whose administration has arrested the former president and top contender for the next presidential election all while ample evidence is being produced showing that what you’d done in conjunction with your son, namely using the power of the Vice Presidency, to personally profit off of the second most powerful post in the country...which the American people had previously entrusted him with. The phrase, “a bridge too far”, originated during World War II, when American troops were asked to construct and hold up a transport bridge without the proper equipment to be able to sustain the weight of the equipment over the distance that was directed. It simply was an unrealistic ask. And since then, it’s been used to represent the unreasonable. On Thursday, I brought you this with one of my takeaways... It’s not working politically. That is at least yet anyway for Democrats. So, a funny thing has happened in the first post-indictment news national poll to be produced. Trump appears to be benefitting. After the New York indictment on the Stormy Daniels charges, there was what I referred to as a “rally around the Trump effect” in Republican primary polling circles but that didn’t translate in general election polling. The initial Economist/YouGov poll post the federal indictment news shows something different. The potential for a national “rally around the Trump effect”. Not a large one mind you, but movement in Trump’s direction that may suggest Americans in the middle think what’s happening here is a bridge too far. Two weeks ago, in the previous poll, President Biden showed a 3-point lead head-to-head in a hypothetical rematch with Trump. Yesterday – with a completely post-indictment news sample – it's tied between the two. And that doesn’t even speak to just how significant of a move there’s been with that particular pollster. On Election Day 2020 – that same poll showed President Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump. That’s a huge swing over two years ago, and a meaningful initial swing on back of the indictment news. It’s way too early to know how this all may eventually play – however the early returns suggest it’s not working politically for Democrats. That was then and...
- Wow look at what’s happening now... The two most recent national polls which have been produced with samples taken post the arraignment of former President Donald Trump show something even more dramatic. Both the Harvard-Harris and Rasmussen polls now show Trump up six-points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Biden next year. Six-points! How big of a deal is that in context? On Election Day 2020 Rasmussen showed Biden with a one-point advantage and Harvard-Harris showed Biden +8 (Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% - so in reality exactly the average of those two polls). This means with three national pollsters, which have produced complete post-Trump indictment news, the change in polling over Election Day 2020 is 10-points, 7-points, and 9-points. With Trump showing an average lead of 4-points over Biden across those three polls – which is an 8.5% turnaround from the actual results in the previous election. For weeks, and prior to these polls coming out, I’ve had people ask me what would happen if Trump were the Republican nominee for president. Commonly, conservatives concerned about whether Trump could really win a rematch. Each time I’ve told people the same thing. I have no idea what would happen in November 2024 – no one does at this point...But Trump would wax Biden if the election were today. And that thought process comes from one very simple deduction. Most in the political middle don’t like Donald Trump. Even fewer in the political middle like Joe Biden. President Biden’s approval rating with independents remains in the 20% range. You simply don’t win elections when over 70% of the political middle is against you. It was a week ago today that Trump was arraigned in Miami. Based on the first weeks’ worth of political sampling, to the extent that Americans have reacted differently as a result of it, it would appear that they view this move by the Biden Administration as a bridge too far. And should we see polling going forward to continue down this path, one wonders if Gavin Newsom rethinks his position not to run against Biden. One also wonders if a Perot 2.0 emerges in attempting to mount an independent bid given the lack of popularity of both leading candidates by most Americans. A lot can change between now and January when the first presidential primary votes are cast. A lot will change between now and November 5th of 2024. But wow, look at what’s happening now. It’s not at what team Biden and his allies in the national news media had expected. The Biden backlash appears to be real. And so too are Trump’s chances of winning the presidency once again – wherever the Biden Administration is hoping he’ll be running from.
- God’s plan. I’ll keep this quick. The Los Angeles Dodgers sold their souls to the devil. The Dodgers got burned. As luck or perhaps something a bit more would have it, the Dodgers started their home series with the Giants with their “Pride Night”, featuring the honoring of the vulgar anti-Christian and specifically anti-Catholic Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence before the game. First, there were far more protestors in front of the stadium during the “performance” and ceremony, than there were inside the stadium to watch it. Next there was an uncanny first game in the series with lots of weird plays and an extra-inning loss by the Dodgers. Then there was the Giants sweeping of the Dodgers – for the first time in LA in over a decade. Including shutting out of the Dodgers in the finale. Call it a coincidence if you’d like. To quote Colton Dixon though – I know that it’s more than timing.