President Biden’s Reelection Odds – October 26th, 2023
Bottom Line: Coming into any Presidential Election cycle with an incumbent seeking reelection, the odds favor the existing president. President Trump became just the tenth president to lose a reelection bid (if you include Gerald Ford who was the incumbent president defeated by Jimmy Carter in the 1976 Presidential Election after having taken over for Richard Nixon). Meanwhile, 21 incumbents who’ve run for reelection have won.
What that means is...
- 67% of Presidents who’ve run for reelection win
There is a clear incumbency advantage. A presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent president. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the president – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this breakout I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent presidents running for reelection tracking the outcomes of those elections. Notably, in my final update preceding the 2020 Presidential election, President Trump’s reelection odds were shown to be just 32%. In other words, this method once again proved to generally be predictive of the actual outcome.
Here’s where we stand as of today:
- 42% based on an average 41% approval rating
What we see, as we’re now only a little more than a year away from Election Day, is President Biden underperforming the historical norms for an incumbent at this point in his presidency. This means a generic ballot Republican contender is currently favored to win the election as of today. In Florida, President Biden’s approval rating stands at just 37%, indicating that a generic ballot Republican is currently a prohibitive favorite to win our state. This is a dynamic I'll track from time-to-time as we advance deeper into the election cycle and will track regularly in the final months leading up to Election Day 2024.
To be continued...