The Not-So-Inevitable Trump Cases & What Willis’ Win Means for Trump - Top 3 Takeaways – March 18th, 2024
- Delaying the not-so-inevitable? 91 charges across four criminal cases and four scheduled court dates, all before the presidential election this year. Entering 2024 that’s what the former and perhaps future President of the United States faced. That’s in addition to the, at one time, greater than a dozen challengers for the Republican nomination for president that Donald Trump faced as well. As of March 18th, here’s the updated scorecard. Trump currently faces 85 charges across four criminal cases and no scheduled court dates for any of the cases. That’s in addition to having clinched the Republican nomination for president in second fastest time an open party nomination has been secured in either major party in American history. To say that the first two and a half months of 2024 have been successful for Donald Trump would be an understatement. The latest development came Friday when the New York judge set to preside over the Stormy Daniels hush money case agreed to push back the trial that had originally been scheduled to start a week from today. Rather than a trial starting in a week, a hearing is now scheduled in a week to hear from both sides in the case for the purpose of considering next steps. Team Trump is calling for the case to be tabled until the Supreme Court has ruled in Trump’s presidential immunity case. New York prosecutor Alvin Bragg, asked for the case to be delayed 30 days for additional evidence to be presented in the trial. The dynamics in this case are interesting for multiple reasons. First, you have a judge presiding over this case whose daughter is a Democrat operative and that personally donated to Joe Biden’s Presidential campaign in 2020 – though he says he can be impartial. Second, you have what is objectively the weakest of the four potential criminal cases brought against Trump – for a matter which originally came public prior to Donald Trump’s 2016 Presidential election win. While on the one hand the deck may seem stacked against Trump in this case, the question may come down to whether Bragg and/or the judge really want to bring this case to trial – potentially at all – but certainly first. The one thing that could be far worse for Democrats engaging in lawfare against Trump – is doing so and losing. The former president’s support only grew stronger in the court of public opinion throughout the year last year as the indictments rolled in. Rest assured it would be cemented for many if Trump is either convicted over something as absurd as the hush money case or perhaps even more so if he is acquitted.
- It’s hard to imagine that the left wants to lead with their weakest hand. The plan was never for this case to go first. So back to where we were and where we are today. Entering this year the breakdown for scheduled court dates looked like this: March 4th: Federal January 6th case. March 25th: New York State Stormy Daniels Hush Money Case. May 20th: Federal classified documents case. September 6th: Georgia state 2020 election case (more on that one in a moment). And now, as of today, there are no dates. On the date of the first Trump indictment last March Joe Biden was averaging a two-point lead in the RealClear Politics average of polls. Today Trump leads by two-points. And what’s more, at this point it’s assured that not all these cases will be able to be held prior to Election Day. The biggest question now is whether any of them will including that Georgia case. On Friday, a Fulton County court judge, who’s up for reelection in a blue county this year, made a decision that made no legal sense but that isn’t actually bad news for Trump.
- What is it with get Trump love affairs anyway? First you had Lisa Page and Peter Strozk, the disgraced and discredited FBI agents who were involved in the bogus Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy and most recently we’ve had the low budget remake in the form of Fulton County DA Fani Willis and her love-for-hire, married friend with benefits...the now former Special Prosecutor in her Trump election interference case, Nathan Wade. How the judge could rule that only one of them could remain on the case due to the appearance of impropriety is beyond any reason that doesn’t have to do with winning an election. But nevertheless, Friday’s resignation of Nathan Wade with Fani staying on the case likely plays into Trump’s hand. First, there’s the two ongoing investigations at the state level. One by the Georgia justice department and the other by the state legislature. Fani is far from off the hook here. She could end up out of a job, disbarred, or even charged with crimes herself. But had she been removed; the case would have been reassigned and the possibility of competent prosecutors eventually bringing a case against Trump & co. may have happened. Instead, a credibility impaired prosecutor who won her election on a “get Trump” message moves forward with the case (minus a date) for now. Perhaps the situation was best stated over the weekend by two publications historically hostile to Donald Trump. The LA Times with their story: Fani Willis’ prosecution of Donald Trump may be alive, but it isn’t well & The Guardian’s: Trump is the true winner in the decision on Fani Willis in the Georgia case. As noted in the LA Times article: Whatever the judge’s intent, his analysis bolsters Trump and other Republicans in Georgia, which is among the most fiercely contested states in the coming election. And in the Guardian’s: Friday’s developments are extremely significant. The Georgia case has long been considered one of the strongest against Trump. Unlike the two criminal cases being pursued by the justice department, it is also insulated from any direct interference by Trump should he win the 2024 election since he cannot dismiss the prosecutor or pardon himself in Georgia, even if he occupies the White House. That was a point I first highlighted when the charges dropped. In many ways the two state cases have represented the most legal jeopardy for Trump – as they’re the two that Trump, or another president, wouldn’t be able to pardon him for if convicted. Yes, the Trump legal strategy is to delay all cases until after the election, but in the two state cases – it's to specifically win them. Having a conflicted and judgement impaired prosecutor in the most compelling of the two, likely works as the best long-term strategy of all. Should Trump become president once again, the question, the longer-term consideration for him, would be what would legally await him on the other side. Just as the odds of Donald Trump becoming the next president have improved...so to have the odds of days on the golf course and nights at Mar-a-Lago following that presidency.