Hurricanes & Political Waves – Top 3 Takeaways – October 4th
- Below average. There’s nothing about hurricane season which feels below average in the wake Hurricane Ian’s destruction, however in terms of overall activity it still is. Throughout the course of this hurricane season, we’ve seen below average tropical activity and as we advance through the first week of October that remains the case. Hurricane Ian will go down as one of the most devastating hurricanes in Florida’s history. Parts of Florida’s gulf coast will never be the same. Dozens of Floridians have lost their lives. The rebuilding effort will take years. It’s a reminder of the potential impact hurricanes can bring. And it's also why I appreciate having fewer of them generally. Fewer tropical storms and hurricanes forming obviously produce fewer opportunities for people to become victims of them. While September proved to be an especially active month for tropical activity, that is most commonly the case with it being the historically most active month of hurricane season. October is typically the third most active month of the season, behind August and September, and while there are two systems being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, there remains the chance, perhaps even likelihood that we’ll register a below-average hurricane season this year. The nine named storms we had entering October were the fewest since the 2014 hurricane season and fewer than half of last year’s total at this stage, 20, and the remarkable 23 named storms we’d experienced entering October during 2020’s record setting cycle. Here’s to hoping the rest of hurricane season is below average – ideally with no more hurricanes which can bring harm to anyone – not even the fishes.
- 5 to go & lots of mo’. Election Day is now just five weeks away and while time will fly from here...momentum on the right might just do the same. On Friday, I made the case as to why a Republican wave was still on the table, and everything we’ve seen informationally since could be presented as supporting evidence. President Biden’s approval rating continues to fall, Republican fortunes in key senate races across the country continues to climb. Generic ballot polls which favored Democrats weeks ago have since flipped the script. There’s no doubt but that there’s growing political momentum on the right, and at just the right time. Consider these generic ballot poll changes from key pollsters from one poll to the next. ABC News/Washington Post: D+1 to R+5. Politico/Morning Consult D+5 to D+2. Economist/YouGov: D+5 to R+1, Monmouth D+3 to R+2. Across those four pollsters that’s an average shift of five points towards Republicans from one polling sample to the next. Those are huge political shifts in a short period of time. And they’re all pointing at a significant shift in the political climate in advance of Election Day. And momentum right now matters – not just because we’re five weeks away from Election Day, but because for some voters, it already is Election Day. Voters who’ve signed up for vote-by-mail ballots in 21 states already have them, including in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And another fourteen states will have ballots sent out by the end of this week, including Florida. So, with over half of the country already casting votes, having mo’ right now can equal votes. There are five weeks to go to find out what happened on Election Day, but current polling is likely starting to tell you how actual votes have already gone in advance of it...and its good news for Republicans. Speaking of which...we’re seeing the flip in...
- Party ID. Gallup has sampled how Americans identify politically monthly since 2004. Seldom have Republicans enjoyed the advantage they currently are showing. One month ago, Democrats enjoyed a six-point advantage on the question of party ID. Today, Republicans do. That’s a twelve-point flip in the party ID question according to Gallup. How rare is all of this? We’ve never seen a 12-point flip from one party to the other in only a month in the 18-year history of this Gallup survey work. And as for the size of the Republican party ID advantage...you have to go back to February of 2020, the last month prior to the impact of the pandemic, to find Republicans with a lead as large as six points. While more Americans still identify as Independents as opposed to either political party, and how they break will decide close elections, it’s clear the political tide has been turning to the right in time for the midterm elections.